[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 January 19 issued 2332 UT on 09 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Thu Jan 10 10:32:38 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan:  72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jan             11 Jan             12 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the 9th January. The 
sun is currently spotless and no earth directed CME's were visible 
in the available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed (Vsw) 
ranged between 452km/s and 392km/s and is currently 412km/s at 
the time of this report. The north-south component of IMF (Bz) 
fluctuated between +3nT and -4nT over the UT day. The solar wind 
speed is expected to continue to decline to ambient levels over 
the next 2-3 days. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low 
for the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21221012
      Cocos Island         3   11121011
      Darwin               3   21111012
      Townsville           5   21222012
      Learmonth            5   22121121
      Alice Springs        4   21211012
      Culgoora             3   11211012
      Gingin               4   21121021
      Canberra             1   00111000
      Launceston           5   21221112
      Hobart               4   21221012    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jan :
      Mawson              11   42222133
      Davis               11   33322033

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jan : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2112 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jan     5    Quiet
11 Jan     5    Quiet
12 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed in the AUS/NZ 
region for 9th January. Mostly Unsettled conditions for Antarctic 
regions. Quiet conditions expected for the AUS/NZ regions and 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions for Antarctic regions for the next 
3 days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
11 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
12 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mildly depressed MUFs likely for Southern Hemisphere 
circuits over the next 3 days. MUFs near predicted monthly values 
or occasional enhancements for Northern Hemisphere. MUF degradations 
are a consequence of the very low levels of ionising radiation 
from the Sun.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
09 Jan   -39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -32
Jan      -12
Feb      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jan   -30    Near predicted monthly values
11 Jan   -30    Near predicted monthly values
12 Jan   -30    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mildly depressed MUFs were observed for Equatorial, 
Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. 
MUFs were near predicted monthly values for Antarctic regions. 
Notable Sporadic E layers observed at low and high latitude stations. 
Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected for the next 
3 days with MUFs either near predicted monthly values or mildly 
depressed due to continued low levels of ionising radiation from 
the Sun.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 433 km/sec  Density:    6.8 p/cc  Temp:    92400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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