[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 December 18 issued 2330 UT on 31 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 1 10:30:18 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 31 December.
There are currently no sunspot regions on the visible solar disc.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next three
UT days, 01- 03 January. No Earth directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind during the
last 24 hours gradually decreased from 530 km/s to 460 km/s.
This was in response to the waning effects of a recurrent positive
polarity coronal hole. During this period the total IMF (Bt)fluctuated
around 5 nT and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated
between +/-5 nT. Expect the solar wind to further decline and
return to nominal levels over the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 22122101
Cocos Island 3 11122100
Darwin 4 21122101
Townsville 5 22122111
Learmonth 4 21222101
Alice Springs 4 2212200-
Culgoora 4 22122010
Canberra 4 22122001
Launceston 5 22222102
Hobart 5 12222102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Dec :
Macquarie Island 4 11133000
Mawson 12 32333313
Davis 12 33343211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 1332 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jan 7 Quiet
02 Jan 7 Quiet
03 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 31 December. Antarctica was mostly Unsettled.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet, over the
next three days as the effects of the coronal hole wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are possible today,
01 January as a consequence of the continued very low levels
of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Dec -37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -32
Dec -8
Jan -9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
02 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
03 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions across the Australian
region as compared to the monthly predicted levels observed during
31 December. Strong Sporadic E layers were seen across the Australian
region and in Antarctica. Similar levels of ionospheric support
expected for the next 3 days due to continued very low levels
of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 533 km/sec Density: 8.8 p/cc Temp: 175000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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