[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 25 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 26 10:30:24 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Feb 27 Feb 28 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 25 February. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days,
26-28 February. Some minor impacts may be experienced on 28 February
due to the CME associated the filament observed around 23/2332UT.
On UT day 25 February, the solar wind speed remained at background
levels. The total IMF (Bt) fluctuated around 5 nT and the north-south
component of IMF (Bz) varied between +/-4 nT. The solar wind
is expected to start increasing either late today, 26 February
or early on 27 February in response to the arrival of the corotating
interaction region and high speed solar wind streams associated
with a recurrent negative polarity coronal hole. Enhanced solar
winds should continue on UT days 27-28 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Feb : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Cocos Island 0 01000000
Darwin 2 11-10101
Townsville 2 11111101
Learmonth 0 01000100
Alice Springs 0 11000000
Gingin 0 10000000
Canberra 0 00000001
Launceston 1 11100001
Hobart 1 01100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 8 33331001
Mawson 8 12111105
Davis 4 22222001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Feb :
Darwin 7 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Feb 12 Quiet to Unsettled with a possible Active period.
27 Feb 20 Active with possible Minor Storm periods.
28 Feb 25 Active with possible Minor Storm periods.
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 24 February
and is current for 27 Feb only. Quiet geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 25 February
and is expected to remain so until the arrival of the corotating
interaction region and high speed solar wind streams associated
with a negative polarity coronal hole late today, 26 February
or early on 27 February, geomagnetic activity is expected to
increase to Unsettled to Active levels. Active levels should
continue on UT days 27-28 February. Minor Storm periods are possible
on UT days 27-28 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Feb Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
28 Feb Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions observed on 25 February.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Feb -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Feb -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
28 Feb -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: On UT day 25 February, MUFs were mildly depressed to
near monthly predicted levels over most Australian region due
to very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun. Sporadic
E layers were observed over some Australian ionosonde stations.
Similar conditions are expected today, 26 February. Slightly
stronger depressions may be observed on UT days 27-28 February
as a consequence of very low levels of ionising radiation from
the Sun and forecasted increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Feb
Speed: 328 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 26200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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