[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 17 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 18 10:30:18 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 17 February. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain very low for the next 3 UT days,
18-20 February. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available
coronagraph imagery up to 17/2012 UT. On UT day 17 February,
the solar wind speed was mostly near its background levels, ranging
between 320 and 370 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged from 4 nT
to 6 nT. The north-south component of IMF (Bz) varied in the
range +3/-5 nT. During the next UT day, 18 February, the solar
wind speed is expected to remain near its background levels.
The solar wind speed is expected to start increasing from UT
day 19 February in response to the approaching high speed solar
streams associated with the recurrent positive polarity patchy
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Feb : A K
Australian Region 1 10110011
Cocos Island 1 10100010
Darwin 2 10100012
Townsville 3 11210022
Learmonth 2 20100011
Alice Springs 1 00100012
Culgoora 1 10110011
Gingin 2 20110011
Canberra 1 10110011
Launceston 3 11210012
Hobart 2 10210011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 00120000
Casey 9 33410022
Mawson 7 21200043
Davis 7 21221133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0110 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Feb 5 Quiet
19 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region and mostly quiet to unsettled levels were seen in Antarctica
on UT day 17 February. On UT day 18 February the global geomagnetic
activity is expected to stay mostly at quiet levels. Condition
may reach unsettled levels and occasionally active levels on
UT days 19-20 February in response to expected arrival of the
corotating interaction region and high speed solar wind streams
associated with the recurrent positive polarity patchy coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 17 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels over most regions. Mild to moderate depressions
were observed in Southern hemisphere, mostly during local day.
Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed in Southern
hemisphere during the next three UT days, 18-20 February, due
to continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Feb -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
19 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
20 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 17 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels over the Australian region. Moderate enhancements
were observed in Northern Australian region during local night.
During the next three UT days, 18-20 February, MUFs are expected
to be mostly near monthly predicted levels. However, mild to
moderate depressions are possible due to continued very low levels
of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 36000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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