[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 January 19 issued 2330 UT on 31 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 1 10:30:18 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 31 January. The
Sun is currently spotless. Solar activity is expected to remain
Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 01-03 February. No Earth directed
CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph imagery. The solar
wind parameters observed during the last 24 hours show the arrival
of the anticipated corotating interaction region and high speed
solar wind streams associated with a negative polarity equatorial
coronal hole. The Solar wind speed started increasing from 300
Km/s at 31/0300 reaching 520 km/s at the time of this report.
During this period, the total IMF (Bt) was gradually increasing
from 4 nT reaching 20 nT at 31/1740UT, currently near 10 nT,
and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between
+/-15 nT. Enhanced solar wind speeds are expected to continue
over the next two days under the influence of the coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A K
Australian Region 11 11213334
Cocos Island 9 11113324
Darwin 10 21213333
Townsville 12 22223334
Learmonth 12 22213334
Alice Springs 10 22213333
Gingin 11 11114324
Canberra 6 01113223
Launceston 13 11224334
Hobart 10 11223324
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jan :
Macquarie Island 16 01125523
Casey 18 24433334
Mawson 22 31224346
Davis 18 22334335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Feb 20 Quiet to Active with a chance of Minor Storm
levels.
02 Feb 12 Quiet to Active
03 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 31 January and
is current for 1 Feb only. Mainly Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 31
January, with some isolated Active periods. Active to Minor Storm
periods were observed in the Antarctic regions. The observed
disturbed conditions were caused by CIR and subsequent HSS associated
with a negative polarity equatorial coronal. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to be at Quiet to Active levels over the next two
UT days, 01-02 February as coronal hole effects persist. A period
of significant southward Bz component could produce Minor Storm
levels over the next 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
02 Feb Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
03 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are possible today,
01 February as a consequence of very low levels of ionising radiation
from the Sun and the current increased geomagnetic activity associated
with coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jan -14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Feb -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
02 Feb -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
03 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 31 January, MUFs were slightly depressed to
near monthly predicted levels over most Australian region. Northern
Australian region and the Niue Island region had Moderate MUF
depressions during the local day. Sporadic E layers were over
some Australian ionosonde stations. Slightly stronger depressions
may be observed on UT days 01-02 February as a consequence of
very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and increased
geomagnetic activity associated with coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 294 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 8970 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list