[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 December 19 issued 2336 UT on 19 Dec 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 20 10:36:56 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Dec 21 Dec 22 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 19 December.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disk and no active
regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disk. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Very Low
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days,
20-22 December. The solar wind speed was elevated during the
UT day, varying between 450-550 km/s, due to a high speed stream
from an equatorial positive polarity coronal hole. The total
IMF (Bt) reached a maximum of 7.3 nT at 19/0322 UT, then gradually
decreased and is currently varying between 2-5 nT. The north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) varied mainly between +/-5 nT and was
southward for most of the UT day. The solar wind is expected
to continue to decline on UT days 20-21 December as the influence
of the coronal hole wanes, returning to background levels on
UT day 22 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 23222111
Cocos Island 4 22212200
Darwin 6 23222111
Townsville 8 33232111
Learmonth 9 33223221
Alice Springs 6 23222111
Gingin 7 32222211
Canberra 8 23332111
Hobart 8 23332111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Dec :
Macquarie Island 9 23342110
Casey 21 46422222
Mawson 18 45323332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12 1113 4421
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 19 December, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet
to Unsettled levels in the Australian region. The Antarctic region
observed Quiet to Active conditions, with some isolated Minor
and Major Storm periods. Global geomagnetic activity is expected
to decrease to Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT days 20-21 December,
then mainly Quiet levels on UT day 22 December, as the coronal
hole effects wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUFs depressions may be observed compared
to the monthly predicted levels for the next three days, 20-22
December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Dec -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -30
Dec -16
Jan -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
21 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
22 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mainly near predicted
monthly values for the Australian region on UT day 19 December.
The Niue Island Region observed Mild to Moderate depressions.
MUFs in the Antarctic region were mildly depressed over the UT
day. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over most sites. In the
Australian region, MUFs are expected to be mainly near the monthly
predicted levels for the next three UT days, 20-22 December,
but may experience some mild to moderate depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.8E+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 490 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 162000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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