[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 30 Aug 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 31 09:31:30 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Aug 01 Sep 02 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 30 August.
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is
expected for the next three UT days, 31 August to 02 September.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. During UT day 30 August, the solar wind speed was near
its nominal levels up to 1230 UT, then it started increasing
and reached 580 km/s, indicating arrival of high-speed solar
wind streams associated with the recurrent coronal hole. The
total IMF (Bt) ranged between 2 nT and 12 nT. The north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) varied between +5 nT and -8 nT. During
the next three UT days, 31 August to 02 September, the solar
wind speed is expected to be elevated.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 11112322
Cocos Island 4 11112221
Darwin 7 22112322
Townsville 7 11113322
Learmonth 7 11222322
Alice Springs 5 11112321
Gingin 6 10112332
Canberra 4 01012222
Launceston 7 12113322
Hobart 5 01113222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Aug :
Macquarie Island 6 01013331
Casey 11 33222332
Mawson 19 33222454
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 2 1000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Aug 30 Unsettled to Minor Storm
01 Sep 25 Unsettled to Active
02 Sep 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 30 August and
is current for 31 Aug to 1 Sep. On UT day 30 August, Quiet to
Unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in the
Australian region and mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels were observed
in Antarctica. On UT day 31 August, the global geomagnetic activity
is expected to increase up to Active and Minor Storm levels due
to coronal hole effects. Isolated Major Storm levels are possible
on 31 August September. Then geomagnetic activity is expected
do decrease gradually to Quiet and Unsettled levels by the end
of UT day 02 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
01 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions are expected for
31 August and 01 September due to predicted increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Aug -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -2
Aug -13
Sep -15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
01 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
02 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 30 August. Sporadic E occurrences
were observed over all sites. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly levels for UT days 31 August to 02 September.
Degraded HF propagation conditions are expected on UT days 31
August and 01 September due to predicted increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 29600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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