[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 30 Aug 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 31 09:31:30 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Aug             01 Sep             02 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 30 August. 
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is 
expected for the next three UT days, 31 August to 02 September. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. During UT day 30 August, the solar wind speed was near 
its nominal levels up to 1230 UT, then it started increasing 
and reached 580 km/s, indicating arrival of high-speed solar 
wind streams associated with the recurrent coronal hole. The 
total IMF (Bt) ranged between 2 nT and 12 nT. The north-south 
component of the IMF (Bz) varied between +5 nT and -8 nT. During 
the next three UT days, 31 August to 02 September, the solar 
wind speed is expected to be elevated.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 30 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   11112322
      Cocos Island         4   11112221
      Darwin               7   22112322
      Townsville           7   11113322
      Learmonth            7   11222322
      Alice Springs        5   11112321
      Gingin               6   10112332
      Canberra             4   01012222
      Launceston           7   12113322
      Hobart               5   01113222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     6   01013331
      Casey               11   33222332
      Mawson              19   33222454

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             5   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              2   1000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Aug    30    Unsettled to Minor Storm
01 Sep    25    Unsettled to Active
02 Sep    12    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 30 August and 
is current for 31 Aug to 1 Sep. On UT day 30 August, Quiet to 
Unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in the 
Australian region and mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels were observed 
in Antarctica. On UT day 31 August, the global geomagnetic activity 
is expected to increase up to Active and Minor Storm levels due 
to coronal hole effects. Isolated Major Storm levels are possible 
on 31 August September. Then geomagnetic activity is expected 
do decrease gradually to Quiet and Unsettled levels by the end 
of UT day 02 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Aug      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
01 Sep      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
02 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions are expected for 
31 August and 01 September due to predicted increase in geomagnetic 
activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Aug    -8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -2
Aug      -13
Sep      -15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
01 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values
02 Sep   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during UT day 30 August. Sporadic E occurrences 
were observed over all sites. MUFs are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly levels for UT days 31 August to 02 September. 
Degraded HF propagation conditions are expected on UT days 31 
August and 01 September due to predicted increase in geomagnetic 
activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 373 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:    29600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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