[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 31 Jul 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 1 09:31:33 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 31 July.
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is
expected for the next 3 UT days, 01-03 August. There were no
Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery.
On UT day 31 July, the solar wind speed was moderate, mainly
between 440-500 km/s, increasing to 500-530 km/s at times. The
total IMF (Bt) reached a maximum of 10.12 nT at 31/1532 UT and
is currently varying between 6-9 nT. The north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) varied between -6 to +9 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain enhanced on UT day 01 August due to the
influence of a recurrent negative polarity equatorial coronal
hole, then begin to weaken on 02 August, returning to background
levels on 03 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 21210011
Cocos Island 3 21210111
Darwin 4 21220111
Townsville 5 31220111
Learmonth 5 31220111
Alice Springs 4 22220011
Culgoora 3 21211011
Gingin 4 31210012
Canberra 3 22211001
Launceston 4 22211011
Hobart 2 21211000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 01201000
Casey 10 43321112
Mawson 19 43431135
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 1110 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated
Active periods
02 Aug 7 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Aug 6 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity were
recorded in the Australian region on UT day 31 July. Mainly Quiet
to Active levels were observed in the Antarctic region, with
Mawson experiencing an isolated Minor Storm period. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels, with
a chance of isolated Active periods, for the next UT day, 01
August, due to the effects of a recurrent equatorial coronal
hole, decreasing to Quiet to Unsettled levels on 02 and 03 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 UT days, 01-03 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jul -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -4
Jul -12
Aug -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
02 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
03 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near
predicted monthly values across the Australian/NZ regions on
UT day 31 July, with moderate enhancements during the local night
over most sites. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed
over some sites. MUFs in the Australian/NZ regions are expected
to stay mostly near the predicted monthly values for the next
three UT days, 01 to 03 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 40300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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