[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 April 19 issued 2338 UT on 29 Apr 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 30 09:38:40 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Apr 01 May 02 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 29 April. There
are currently no sunspots on the solar disk visible from the
Earth. Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the
next 3 UT days, 30 April - 2 May. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 29 April,
the solar wind speed ranged between 320 km/s and 400 km/s, currently
near 330 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 2 nT
and 5 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied in
the range -5/+4 nT. For the next UT day, 30 April, the solar
wind speed is expected to be mostly at background levels and
can reach moderately elevated levels due to minor coronal hole
effects. The solar wind is expected to become moderately enhanced
on UT day 1 May due to the effects of a recurrent southern hemisphere
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11011200
Cocos Island 2 11110200
Darwin 2 10011201
Townsville 3 11021201
Learmonth 2 11111200
Alice Springs 2 10011201
Culgoora 1 10011100
Gingin 2 10111200
Canberra 2 10011200
Launceston 3 21012200
Hobart 2 11012200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 00012200
Casey 6 22211311
Mawson 13 22111425
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1121 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 May 13 Unsettled to Active
02 May 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region on UT day 29 April. Mostly Quiet levels were
observed in Antarctica on UT day 29 April. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels
for 30 April. On 1 May geomagnetic activity is expected to increase
and can reach Active levels due to effects associated with a
recurrent coronal hole, with Unsettled to Active levels expected
to continue on UT day 2 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced levels over
the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted
monthly MUFs are expected for the next two UT days, 30 April
- 1 May, with a chance of minor MUF depressions on UT day 2 May
due to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Apr -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar -7
Apr -12
May -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
01 May 3 Near predicted monthly values
02 May -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed -10 to
-20%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced levels during
the last 24 hours for the Australian region. Sporadic E layers
were observed over most of the Australian region. Mostly normal
HF conditions and near predicted monthly MUFs are expected for
the next two UT days, 30 April to 1 May, in the Australian/NZ
regions, with a chance of minor MUF depressions on UT day 2 May
due to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 7.9 p/cc Temp: 47000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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