[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 April 19 issued 2330 UT on 14 Apr 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 15 09:30:18 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 APRIL 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 14 Apr, with
no notable flares. There is currently one numbered sunspot region
on the visible solar disk, Region 2738 which is located at N06W17.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3
UT days (15-17 April) with a remote chance for C-class flares.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available imagery.
The solar wind speed during the last 24 hours decreased from
390 km/s to 310 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) was mostly steady near
3 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between
+1 nT and -3 nT and mostly remained weakly southward during the
UT day. The outlook for next two UT days (15-16 April) is for
the solar wind to be near its nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 11100100
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 2 11110101
Townsville 2 12110101
Learmonth 2 12000101
Alice Springs 1 01100100
Gingin 1 11100101
Canberra 1 01100100
Launceston 3 12210200
Hobart 2 11200100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 11200000
Casey 6 23211212
Mawson 11 22221035
Davis 11 13222115
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2310 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Apr 5 Quiet
16 Apr 5 Quiet
17 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed for
the AUS/NZ regions on UT day 14 April. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled
levels were observed in Antarctica . Mostly Quiet global geomagnetic
conditions are expected for AUS/NZ region for next three UT days
(15-17 April).
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values across all latitudes
on 14 April. Similar HF conditions are expected for today, UT
day 15 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Apr 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar -7
Apr -12
May -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
16 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
17 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies ranged from mostly near predicted
monthly values to slightly enhanced ones over the last 24 hours
for Australian and Antarctic Region. Mostly near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected for the next three UT days (April 15 - 17)
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 74500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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