[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 September 18 issued 2330 UT on 27 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 28 09:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Sep 29 Sep 30 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 27 September,
with no solar flares. There are currently no numbered sunspot
regions on the visible solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 28-30
September, solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available SOHO LASCO
imagery up to 27/1536 UT. The solar wind speed during the last
24 hours were mostly steady near 425 km/s. The IMF Bt was steady
near 3 nT till 27/1800 UT and thereafter fluctuated between
1 nT and 6 nT. The IMF Bz varied between -3 nT to +3 nT. The two
day outlook (28-30 September) is for the solar wind speed to
gradually return to nominal conditions.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 11223102
Cocos Island 3 11112101
Darwin 5 22113102
Townsville 6 12123112
Learmonth 5 11213102
Alice Springs 5 12123101
Culgoora 5 11223102
Gingin 4 21113101
Canberra 4 01223001
Launceston 6 11223112
Hobart 4 11223001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Sep :
Macquarie Island 4 11223000
Casey 10 33333102
Mawson 10 34231103
Davis 7 22332111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 1231 2312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Sep 5 Quiet
29 Sep 5 Quiet
30 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels and
briefly reached unsettled levels across the Australian region
on the UT day 27 September. The Antarctic region experienced
some unsettled conditions during the last 24 hours. The short-lived
unsettled conditions were because the earth is still under the
influence of moderately elevated solar winds and IMF Bz were
weakly southward for prolonged periods. The outlook for the next
two days (UT day 28-29 September) is for the magnetic activity
to be mostly quiet and occasionally may reach unsettled levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
27 September, with periods of minor MUF depressions over the
equatorial regions. Similar HF conditions are expected for today,
UT day 28 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Sep -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 1
Sep -4
Oct -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
29 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
30 Sep -4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Overall, MUFs over the Australian region were mostly
near monthly predicted levels on UT day 27 September. The highest
MUF depression of 15%-30% below monthly predicted levels occurred
over the North Australian during midday. Mostly near predicted
monthly MUF values are expected for the Australian region on
UT days 28 and 29 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 430 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 71300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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