[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 September 18 issued 2339 UT on 16 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Mon Sep 17 09:39:37 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Sep:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Sep             18 Sep             19 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low today, UT day 16 September. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed today in the available LASCO 
C2 and C3 imagery. The solar wind speed during the last 24 hours 
gradually decreased from 460 km/s to 380 km/s in response to 
the waning effects of the coronal hole. The total IMF Bt varied 
mostly between 1 nT and 5 nT during the UT day. The Bz component 
of IMF fluctuated mostly between +2/-3 nT during this period, 
staying southwards for relatively longer periods of time. The 
particle density varied between 5 and 10 ppcc. The solar wind 
speed is expected to continue to decrease initially on UT day 
17 September and then show a gradual increase due to the effect 
of another negative polarity recurrent coronal hole. The solar 
wind speed may stay high up to around 600 km/s from late on 17 
September until the end of UT day 18 September. There are no 
sunspots on the solar disk visible from the Earth side. For the 
next three UT days, 17-19 September, solar activity is expected 
to remain at Very Low levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111011
      Cocos Island         1   10010001
      Darwin               2   11111011
      Townsville           3   12121011
      Learmonth            3   12111111
      Alice Springs        2   01121001
      Culgoora             2   11111011
      Gingin               3   12111111
      Canberra             2   11111010
      Launceston           4   12121111
      Hobart               1   11111000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     2   11221000
      Casey                8   33322111
      Mawson              17   44330044
      Davis               24   34431064

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              14   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   33222112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Sep    15    Mostly Quiet to Unsettled, isolated Active periods 
                possible
18 Sep    12    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Sep     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over 
the Australian region on UT day 16 September, while in the Antarctic 
region geomagnetic activity reached Active levels at times. During 
the next 2 UT days, 17-18 September, global geomagnetic activity 
is expected to stay mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels with 
some possibility of Active periods due to coronal hole effects. 
Geomagnetic activity may return to mostly Quiet levels on 19 
September.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in on UT day 
16 September with periods of minor MUF depressions in some low 
latitude regions. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected during 
the next 3 days UT days, 17-19 September.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Sep     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      1
Sep      -4
Oct      -4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Sep     2    Near predicted monthly values
18 Sep     2    Near predicted monthly values
19 Sep     4    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Australian/NZ 
regions on UT day 16 September with periods of minor MUF depressions 
in the Northern areas. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected 
in the Australian/NZ regions during the next 3 days UT days, 
17-19 September.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:32%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Sep
Speed: 505 km/sec  Density:    7.7 p/cc  Temp:   265000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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