[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 September 18 issued 2337 UT on 13 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 14 09:37:14 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Sep: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low today, UT day 13 September.
As anticipated because of the coronal hole effect, the solar
wind speed stayed at high levels throughout the UT day today-
showing slow increase from 490 km/s to 550 km/s during the UT
day. The total IMF Bt varied mostly between 3 nT and 7 nT during
the day. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between +4/-6 nT
during most parts of the day. The particle density stayed between
4 ppcc and 9 ppcc showing a gradually decreasing trend. Solar
wind speed is expected to show a gradual decrease from the current
high levels to the normal levels through UT days 14 September
as the coronal hole effect is expected to slowly decline through
this day. For the next three UT days, 14-16 September, solar
activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 13 Sep : A K
Australian Region 11 22243321
Cocos Island 7 21223221
Darwin 8 22233221
Townsville 11 22243322
Learmonth 10 22233322
Alice Springs 9 22233321
Culgoora 11 22243321
Gingin 12 22233432
Canberra 11 22243321
Launceston 16 23254322
Hobart 12 22244321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Sep :
Macquarie Island 31 23365621
Casey 14 33433322
Mawson 27 55433434
Davis 19 43444331
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 013
Planetary 015
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 010
Planetary 007 2201 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Sep 10 Mostly Quiet to Unsettled, isolated Active periods
possible
15 Sep 5 Mostly Quiet, isolated Unsettled periods possible
16 Sep 7 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Due to the continued effect of the recurrent positive
polarity coronal hole, Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions were observed over
the
Australian region on UT day 13 September. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to stay mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels with
some possibility of isolated Active periods on 14 September due
to the continued but expectedly declining effect of the coronal
hole. Geomagnetic conditions are then expected to gradually decline
to Quiet to Unsettled levels on 15 September. The effect of another
coronal hole may again raise the level of geomagnetic activity
to Unsettled levels on 16 September.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
13 September with periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements in
some low- and mid-latitude locations. Mostly normal HF conditions
may be expected during the next 3 days (14 to 16 September, UT
days).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Sep 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 1
Sep -4
Oct -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Sep 4 Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep 6 Near predicted monthly values
16 Sep 6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Australian/NZ
regions on UT day 13 September with periods of minor to mild
MUF enhancements in the Northern parts and minor enhancements
in the Southern parts. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected
in this region during the next 3 days (14 to 16 September, UT
days).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Sep
Speed: 534 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 270000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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