[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 October 18 issued 2330 UT on 30 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 31 10:30:19 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Oct 01 Nov 02 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 30 October.
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the visible
solar disc. Solar activity is expected to stay at Very Low levels
for the next three UT days (31 October - 2 November). No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available latest LASCO imagery up to
30/1748 UT. The solar wind speed during the last 24 hours was
mostly steady, near the nominal level of 300 km/s. During this
time, IMF Bt varied mostly between 2 nT and 6 nT, and Bz fluctuated
between +5/-3 nT. The two day outlook (31 October - 1 November)
is for the solar winds to enhance weakly in response to the anticipated
arrival of wind streams from a small low latitude coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11110012
Cocos Island 2 11110011
Darwin 2 11110012
Townsville 2 21110002
Learmonth 3 21110112
Alice Springs 2 11110002
Culgoora 2 11110002
Gingin 2 11100012
Canberra 1 11100001
Launceston 3 11211012
Hobart 1 11101001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 01000001
Casey 9 34320012
Mawson 5 33100121
Davis 5 33211010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Nov 5 Quiet
02 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity were at Quiet levels on UT day
30 October across the Australian. Some Unsettled levels of geomagnetic
activity were recorded in the Antarctic regions during the early
part of the UT day 30 October. This was due to IMF Bz staying
weakly southwards for a prolonged period. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to stay at Quiet levels today (UT day 31
October) with the possibility of some unsettled periods due to
the possible effect from the small low latitude coronal hole,
soon reaching geoeffective location the solar disk. Mostly Quiet
geomagnetic conditions are expected to continue from November
1.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the Southern
mid-latitude and Northern mid-to-high latitude regions on UT
day 30 October. MUF depressions were observed over the dayside
equatorial regions and Southern high-latitude regions. Similar
HF conditions are expected for today, UT day 31 October. Very
low levels of ionisation radiation from the Sun seems to be the
main reason for these MUF depressions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Oct -22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 0
Oct -5
Nov -5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values
01 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values
02 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on 28 October
and is current for 29-31 Oct. MUFs over the Australian regions
were mainly from near monthly predicted levels to depressed by
around 20% on UT day 30 October. Very low levels of ionisation
radiation from the Sun seems to be the main reason for these
MUF depressions. Minor depressions to near monthly predicted
MUFs are expected in the Aus/NZ regions for the next three days
(UT days 31 October - 2 November).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct
Speed: 321 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 25500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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