[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 October 18 issued 2330 UT on 12 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 13 10:30:19 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 12 October.
There is currently one spotted region on the visible solar disc,
AR 2724 (currently at S08E56). It produced 2 B-class flares.
The first flare, B2.1, peaked at 0150 UT. It was accompanied
by a type II sweep and a CME, which were visible since 0150 UT
and 0248 UT, respectively. This CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
For the next 3 UT days, 13-15 October, solar activity is expected
to be at Very Low to Low levels. During the UT day 12 October
the solar wind speed was slowly decreasing on average, varying
in the range 350-470 km/s, currently at 350 km/s. The IMF Bt
was steady, varying between 2 nT and 4 nT. The IMF Bz varied
in the range +2/-3 nT. During the next UT day, 13 October, the
solar wind speed is expected to be near its background level.
On 14 October it should start increasing due to expected arrival
of the corotating interaction region and high speed solar wind
streams associated with a recurrent coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 11131101
Cocos Island 1 10110100
Darwin 3 11030101
Townsville 4 11131111
Learmonth 5 21131111
Alice Springs 3 11130001
Culgoora 3 11131001
Gingin 3 21020111
Canberra 3 11230001
Launceston 4 12231001
Hobart 4 11231001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Oct :
Macquarie Island 5 11241000
Casey 11 34331122
Mawson 17 42122354
Davis 19 23222355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 3332 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Oct 7 Quiet
14 Oct 12 Unsettled
15 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet levels with
one isolated Unsettled period on UT day 12 October across the
Australian region. Quiet to Minor Storm levels were observed
in Antarctica. For the next UT day, 13 October, the global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be at Quiet levels; then, on 14-15 October,
it is expected to reach Unsettled levels with possible isolated
Active periods because the Earth is expected to be influenced
by the corotating interaction region and high speed solar wind
streams associated with a recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF conditions were observed on UT day
12 October, with MUFs varying between the monthly predicted values
and moderately depressed ones. Mostly normal HF conditions are
expected for the next three UT days, 13-15 October. However,
mildly to moderately depressed MUFs are likely over equatorial
regions and at high latitudes in the Southern hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Oct -22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 0
Oct -5
Nov -5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
25%
14 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
15 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: On UT day 12 October over the Australian region MUFs
were varying mostly between the monthly predicted values and
moderately depressed ones. The highest MUF depression of 35%
below the monthly predicted levels occurred over the Northern
Australian region during the local night. Similar HF conditions
are expected for the next 3 UT days, 13-15 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 484 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 160000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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