[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 October 18 issued 2330 UT on 10 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 11 10:30:17 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 10 October.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible solar disc. For
the next 3 UT days, 11-13 October, solar activity is expected
to be at Very Low levels. During the UT day 10 October the solar
wind speed was elevated, varying in the range 460-550 km/s. The
IMF Bt was steady, varying between 3 nT and 8 nT. The IMF Bz
varied in the range +5/-7 nT, it was mostly negative since 0840
UT. During the next UT day, 11 October, the solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated due to high-speed solar wind streams
associated with the large recurrent coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 21233332
Cocos Island 7 21222231
Darwin 9 21232332
Townsville 10 21233332
Learmonth 13 32233342
Alice Springs 10 21233332
Culgoora 9 21133232
Gingin 12 21233342
Canberra 10 21133332
Launceston 12 21233342
Hobart 11 21133342
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Oct :
Macquarie Island 25 21146542
Casey 17 34432243
Mawson 40 43434475
Davis 30 34443265
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 15 2333 3433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
12 Oct 12 Unsettled
13 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at Quiet to Unsettled
levels on UT day 10 October across the Australian region. Quiet
to Severe Storm levels were observed in Antarctica. For the next
3 UT days, 11-13 October, the global geomagnetic activity is
expected to decrease from mostly Unsettled levels to mostly Quiet
ones. Isolated Active levels are also possible on 11 October
because the Earth is still under the influence of high speed
solar wind streams.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to Fair HF conditions were observed on UT day
10 October, with prolonged periods of mild MUF depressions over
the equatorial regions and in the Southern hemisphere. Mostly
normal conditions are expected for the next three UT days, 11-13
October. However, mildly depressed MUFs are likely for equatorial
regions and in the Southern hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Oct -19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 0
Oct -5
Nov -5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
25%
12 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
13 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: On UT day 10 October over the Australian region MUFs
were mostly near mildly depressed levels. The highest MUF depression
of 25% below monthly predicted levels occurred over the Northern
Australian region during the local night. The outlook for the
next 3 UT days, 11-13 October, is for the MUFs to vary mostly
between near monthly predicted values and mildly depressed ones.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+09 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:30%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 579 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 229000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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