[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 October 18 issued 2330 UT on 08 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 9 10:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Oct: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 8 October,
with no solar flares. There are currently no sunspots on the
visible solar disc. For the next 3 UT days, 9-11 October, solar
activity is expected to be at Very Low levels. During the UT
day 8 October the solar wind speed was elevated, varying in the
range 510-580 km/s. The IMF Bt was varying between 8 nT and 3
nT, gradually decreasing on average, and the IMF Bz was mostly
negative, varying between +6/-7 nT. During the next 2 UT days,
9-10 October, the solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
due to high-speed solar wind streams associated with the large
recurrent coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Oct: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 08 Oct : A K
Australian Region 16 33335321
Cocos Island 11 23234310
Darwin 15 33235311
Townsville 16 33335321
Learmonth 20 33345422
Alice Springs 16 33335311
Culgoora 16 33335311
Gingin 18 33335422
Canberra 16 33335321
Launceston 18 33435322
Hobart 16 33335321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Oct :
Macquarie Island 36 34447511
Casey 23 45523422
Mawson 27 45534441
Davis 23 34543441
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 64 (Active)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 29
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 21 0013 4554
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Oct 17 Active
10 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
11 Oct 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 5 October and
is current for 7-9 Oct. Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet
to Minor Storm levels on UT day 8 October across the Australian
region. Quiet to Severe Storm levels were observed in Antarctica.
For the next UT day, 9 October, the global geomagnetic activity
is expected to vary from Quiet to Active levels. Isolated Minor
Storm levels are also possible because the Earth is under the
influence of high speed solar wind streams associated with the
large recurrent coronal hole. Then the geomagnetic activity is
expected to decline gradually to mostly Unsettled levels as the
coronal hole effects wane. The aurora may be visible from Tasmania
on the local night of the 9 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to Fair HF conditions were observed on UT day
8 October, with periods of mild MUF depressions over the equatorial
and southern regions. Degraded HF conditions are expected for
9 October due to increased geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Oct -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 0
Oct -5
Nov -5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
10 Oct -18 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
11 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Overall, MUFs over the Australian region were at slightly
depressed to near monthly predicted levels on UT day 08 October.
The highest MUF depression of 20% below monthly predicted levels
occurred over the Southern Australian region during the local
day. The outlook for the next 2 UT days, 9-10 October, is for
the MUFs to be mostly between near monthly predicted values and
moderately depressed ones due to disturbed geomagnetic conditions
on 7-8 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Oct
Speed: 419 km/sec Density: 10.2 p/cc Temp: 103000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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