[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 September 18 issued 2334 UT on 30 Sep 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 1 09:34:02 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 SEPTEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Oct 02 Oct 03 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 30 September,
with no solar flares. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region
on the visible solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 1-3 October,
solar activity is expected to be at Very Low levels with a slight
chance for C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available SOHO LASCO imagery up to 30/2036 UT. The solar
wind speed peaked at 505 km/s at 30/0158 UT then decreased, currently
around 400 km/s. The IMF Bt reached 7.8 nT at 29/2346 UT and
is currently varying between 2-5 nT. The IMF Bz reached a minimum
of -4.1 nT at 30/1727 UT, and is currently varying between -4
to 3 nT. The three day outlook (1-3 October) is for the solar
wind to remain moderately enhanced due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 12012011
Cocos Island 2 12111010
Darwin 3 22111011
Townsville 4 12112111
Learmonth 5 22012122
Alice Springs 3 13001010
Culgoora 2 12011011
Gingin 3 11012121
Canberra 2 12011011
Launceston 3 12012111
Hobart 3 12012011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 01002011
Casey 9 34212022
Mawson 24 34221256
Davis 11 23321143
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 2323 3113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Oct 11 Quiet to Unsettled, with possible isolated Active
periods
02 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled, with possible isolated Active
periods
03 Oct 6 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet levels on the UT
day 30 September across the Australian region. The Antarctic
region experienced Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions with
isolated Minor Storm periods. The outlook for the UT days 1-2
October is for Quiet to Unsettled condition with possible isolated
Active periods, then Quiet to Unsettled conditions on 3 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Sep -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 1
Sep -4
Oct -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
02 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
03 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs over the Australian region were mostly near monthly
predicted levels on UT day 30 September, with Minor MUF depressions
in the Southern Australian region during the local night. Mostly
near predicted monthly MUF values with possible Minor depressions
are expected for the Australian region on UT days 1-3 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 57900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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