[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 November 18 issued 2350 UT on 18 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 19 10:50:11 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day of 18th November.
Region 2727 (N01W53) showed some signs of decay as it decreased
in size down to 40 millionths of a solar hemisphere. No earth
directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. The
solar wind speed has increased slightly, beginning the UT day
at 299km/s with a notable rise from 300km/s to 328km/s at 05UT
and is currently 328km/s at the time of this report. Btotal has
steadily increased from 3nT at 00UT to a maximum of 7nt at 2223UT.
The north south component of IMF (Bz) has been predominantly
northward with momentary southward excursions that have been
gradually increasing in magnitude over the UT day with Bz reaching
-7nT at 2223UT. Slightly enhanced solar wind speed is expected
over the next 3 days due to the influence of a fragmented negative
polarity coronal hole. Solar activity is expected to be Very
Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 11112212
Townsville 5 11113212
Alice Springs 3 10002202
Launceston 5 12122212
Hobart 3 01022202
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Nov :
Mawson 6 32112211
Davis 7 23222212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Nov 9 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Australian/Antarctic region for 18Nov with Unsettled periods
for Antarctic regions over the UT day. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
with possible Active periods for high latitudes expected for
the next 3 days due to minor coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values for the Northern
Hemisphere with notable enhancements for low to high latitudes.
Variable conditions observed for southern hemisphere ranging
from isolated enhancements during local night to depressed MUFs
during daylight regions. Expect similar conditions to prevail
for the next 2-3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Nov -31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Nov -35 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
20 Nov -35 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
21 Nov -35 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 16 November
and is current for 17-19 Nov. HF conditions for the AUS/NZ region
during the last 24 hours saw MUFs depressions ranging between
10%-30% during local day and night for Equatorial regions. Northern
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions MUFs ranged from minor depressions
to near predicted monthly values during local day and night,
and Antarctic regions near predicted monthly values over the
UT day. Similar levels of depressed ionospheric support expected
for the next 3 days with minor to moderate MUF depressions across
all latitude bands due to continued very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 327 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 18400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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