[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 November 18 issued 2330 UT on 10 Nov 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 11 10:30:19 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 NOVEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 10 November.
There is currently no sunspots on the the solar disc visible
from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the
available LASCO imagery up to 10/1612UT. Solar activity is expected
to be Very Low for the next three days. Over the last 24 hours
the solar wind increased from 450 to 600 km/s and is currently
near 590 km/s. Over the same period the total IMF (Bt) ranged
from 13 to 5 nT and is currently near 5 nT. Bz varied between
+12/-10 nT. No prolong periods of Bz observed and as a result
reconnection with the Earth's magnetic field was minimal. Expect
the solar wind stream to remain elevated for the next 2 days
due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream (HSS) associated
with a recurrent negative polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Note limited station data due to communication link problem.
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 22242122
Townsville 7 22232122
Culgoora 7 222321--
Launceston 11 22342232
Hobart 9 22242122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Nov :
Davis 26 43452162
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov :
Australia Quiet
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 1002 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian region ranged
from Quiet to Active levels for the UT day, 10 November. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to remain at Quiet to Unsettled levels with
isolated periods of Active levels when the IMF Bz component turns
negative for the next two days with a return to Mostly Quiet
levels on 13 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values for the Northern
Hemisphere with isolated pockets of depressions at lower latitudes.
The Southern Hemisphere (SH) was mostly near predicted MUF values
in the local daytime hours for low to mid latitudes with pockets
of depressions at low latitudes. The SH was moderately depressed
during the local nighttime hours. The high Latitudes for the
SH were mostly depressed with isolated periods of degraded HF
communication over the last 24 hours. Expect similar conditions
to prevail today 11 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Nov -36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -17
Nov -7
Dec -7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
12 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
13 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on 10 November
and is current for 11-13 Nov. The Australian region was mostly
near predicted MUF values in the local daytime hours with pockets
of depressions in the Northern edge of Australia. During the
local nighttime hours Australia was mostly depressed below predicted
MUFs. The Antarctic region was mostly depressed with isolated
periods of degraded HF communication throughout the UT day. Expect
this trend to continue over the next two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 428 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 62300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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