[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 October 18 issued 2330 UT on 31 Oct 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 1 10:30:18 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 OCTOBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 31 October.
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the visible
solar disc. Solar activity is expected to stay at Very Low levels
for the next three UT days (1 - 3 November). No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available latest LASCO imagery up to
31/1712 UT. The solar wind speed during the early part of the
UT day was near its nominal level of 300 km/s, and then starting
from 31/0700 UT increased gradually to 350 km/s. The solar wind
speed at the time of writing this report was 330 km/s. The mild
enhancement in the solar wind speed is thought to be caused by
a small low latitude coronal hole now at the geoeffective location
on the solar disk. During the last 24 hours, IMF Bt varied mostly
between 2 nT and 6 nT, and IMF Bz fluctuated between +4/-4 nT.
The two day outlook (1- 2 November) is for the solar winds to
decline to its nominal levels as the effects of the current coronal
hole wane. From late UT day 3 November, the solar wind is expected
to enhance again as another large equatorial coronal is expected
to reach geoeffective location on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 10012212
Cocos Island 2 00001211
Darwin 3 10012202
Townsville 3 10012212
Learmonth 3 11012211
Alice Springs 3 11012202
Culgoora 3 10012212
Gingin 3 10012212
Canberra 3 10012212
Launceston 5 11113212
Hobart 4 10112212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 00001201
Casey 8 232222--
Mawson 6 311122--
Davis 8 22222223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 2100 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Nov 5 Quiet
02 Nov 5 Quiet
03 Nov 20 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity were at Quiet levels on UT day
31 October across the Australian region. Some mild Unsettled
levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in the Antarctic
regions. The two day outlook (1-2 November) is for the geomagnetic
activity to stay at Quiet levels and occasionally may reach Unsettled
periods. On late UT day 03 Nov, geomagnetic condition may reach
Active levels and occasionally to minor storm levels. These forecasted
disturbed conditions are in response to the corotation interaction
region (CIR) associated with an approaching large equatorial
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
03 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the mid
and high latitude regions on UT day 31 October. MUF depressions
were observed over the dayside equatorial regions. Similar HF
conditions are expected for today, UT day 1 November. Very low
levels of ionisation radiation from the Sun seems to be the main
reason for these MUF depressions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Oct -25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 0
Oct -5
Nov -5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values
02 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values
03 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near the monthly predicted levels over
the Southern Australian and Antarctic region during UT day 31
October. MUF depressions of up to 30% were observed in the lower
latitude regions of Australia during this UT day. Very low levels
of ionisation radiation from the Sun seems to be the main reason
for these MUF depressions. Minor depressions to near monthly
predicted MUFs are expected in the Aus/NZ regions for the next
three days (UT days 1-3 November).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 307 km/sec Density: 9.1 p/cc Temp: 17400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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