[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 May 18 issued 2318 UT on 25 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 26 09:18:13 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 May             27 May             28 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              73/9

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 25 May, 
with only several B-class flares produced by active regions 2711 
and 2712. The strongest flare B3.7 peaked at 25/2009 UT and was 
from Region 2711 which is currently located at N05W54. There 
are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the visible solar 
disk. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels 
for the next 3 UT days (26-28 May) with some chance for C-class 
flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during UT day, 25 
May, via LASCO C2 imagery up to 25/2012 UT. The solar wind speed 
during UT day 25 May was gradually declining from 440 km/s to 
360 km/s up to 2000 UT, then it increased to 400 km/s, currently 
at 380 km/s. The IMF Bt during the last 24 hours was varying 
in the range 1-5 nT; the Bz component of IMF was between -2 nT 
and 3 nT. During the next UT day, 26 May, the the solar wind 
speed is expected to be near its nominal values. Then it may 
increase to moderate values as a response to solar wind streams 
from the northern polar coronal hole extension which was facing 
the Earth on 24-25 May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11001000
      Cocos Island         1   11010000
      Darwin               1   11101001
      Townsville           1   11001001
      Learmonth            1   11001000
      Alice Springs        0   00001000
      Gingin               0   01000000
      Canberra             0   10001000
      Launceston           1   11001000
      Hobart               0   10001000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   10001000
      Casey                3   22211100
      Mawson              10   33422121

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   2201 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 May     5    Quiet
27 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
28 May     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 25 May. The Australian Antarctic 
region experienced some unsettled conditions during the early 
part of UT day 25 May. Expect magnetic conditions to be mostly 
at quiet levels on 26 May. Then the geomagnetic activity may 
reach unsettled levels due to coronal hole effects related to 
the northern polar coronal hole extension which was facing the 
Earth on 24-25 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions for the next 3 UT 
days (26-28 May) in all regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 May     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      7
May      1
Jun      0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 May     5    Near predicted monthly values
27 May     5    Near predicted monthly values
28 May     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for most 
AUS/NZ regions on UT day 25 May. Mildly enhanced MUFs were observed 
in the Australian Region during local night. Expect mostly near 
predicted monthly values for the next three UT days (26-28 May).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May
Speed: 484 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:   215000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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