[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 May 18 issued 2318 UT on 25 May 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 26 09:18:13 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MAY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 May 27 May 28 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 25 May,
with only several B-class flares produced by active regions 2711
and 2712. The strongest flare B3.7 peaked at 25/2009 UT and was
from Region 2711 which is currently located at N05W54. There
are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the visible solar
disk. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
for the next 3 UT days (26-28 May) with some chance for C-class
flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during UT day, 25
May, via LASCO C2 imagery up to 25/2012 UT. The solar wind speed
during UT day 25 May was gradually declining from 440 km/s to
360 km/s up to 2000 UT, then it increased to 400 km/s, currently
at 380 km/s. The IMF Bt during the last 24 hours was varying
in the range 1-5 nT; the Bz component of IMF was between -2 nT
and 3 nT. During the next UT day, 26 May, the the solar wind
speed is expected to be near its nominal values. Then it may
increase to moderate values as a response to solar wind streams
from the northern polar coronal hole extension which was facing
the Earth on 24-25 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11001000
Cocos Island 1 11010000
Darwin 1 11101001
Townsville 1 11001001
Learmonth 1 11001000
Alice Springs 0 00001000
Gingin 0 01000000
Canberra 0 10001000
Launceston 1 11001000
Hobart 0 10001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 May :
Macquarie Island 0 10001000
Casey 3 22211100
Mawson 10 33422121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2201 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 May 5 Quiet
27 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 25 May. The Australian Antarctic
region experienced some unsettled conditions during the early
part of UT day 25 May. Expect magnetic conditions to be mostly
at quiet levels on 26 May. Then the geomagnetic activity may
reach unsettled levels due to coronal hole effects related to
the northern polar coronal hole extension which was facing the
Earth on 24-25 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions for the next 3 UT
days (26-28 May) in all regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 May 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 7
May 1
Jun 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
27 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
28 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for most
AUS/NZ regions on UT day 25 May. Mildly enhanced MUFs were observed
in the Australian Region during local night. Expect mostly near
predicted monthly values for the next three UT days (26-28 May).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May
Speed: 484 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 215000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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