[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 March 18 issued 2330 UT on 29 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 30 10:30:26 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Mar 31 Mar 01 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 29 March.
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
days. There are currently no sunspots on the visible solar disc.
There were no earthward directed CMEs observed on 29 March in
the available C2 LASCO coronagraph imagery. Solar wind speed
remained ~3700km/s until 1600UT after which it increased to ~420km/s.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) was predominantly neutral for most of the UT day ranging
between +/-5nT. Btotal was mostly near 5nT and ranged between
3-10nT. Solar wind speed is expected to further increase over
the next 24-48 hours due to the influence of a high speed solar
wind stream from a positive polarity, north polar coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 00111111
Cocos Island 2 01111110
Darwin 3 10111112
Townsville 4 11112211
Learmonth 3 0-202200
Alice Springs 1 00011101
Canberra 1 00011100
Launceston 2 00021111
Hobart 1 00021100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 00021000
Casey 4 12221101
Mawson 6 21122113
Davis 4 01222210
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1100 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Mar 15 Quiet to Active
31 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Apr 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed across the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to increase over the next 24 hours to mostly Unsettled levels
with isolated periods of Active levels due to a high speed solar
wind stream associated with a coronal hole becoming geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
31 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Expect mostly Normal HF conditions the next three days,
however, isolated pockets Minor to Moderate depressions may occur
due to anticipated weak geomagnetic activity and low EUV levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Mar -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 3
Apr 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
31 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: HF conditions varied between near predicted and minor
depressions for 29 March. Observed isolated periods of sporadic
E throughout the Australian region. Expect mostly near predicted
MUFs over the next three days with isolated periods of Minor
to Moderate depressed MUFs, due to expected weak ionospheric
storming associated with an increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:39%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 245000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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