[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 March 18 issued 2348 UT on 17 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 18 10:48:01 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 17Mar. There were no
earthward directed CMEs observed in the available LASCO coronagraph
imagery and newly numbered region 2702 (N19W46) is only 30 millionths
of a solar hemisphere. Solar wind speed (Vsw) was approximately
475km/s at 00UT and increased to be ~500km/s between 03UT-20UT
and is currently ~525km/s at the time of this report. Solar wind
speed is expected to remain elevated over the next 24-36 hours
due to the influence of a high speed solar wind stream from the
northern hemisphere located negative polarity recurrent coronal
hole. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) reached a maximum of -8nT at 0020UT but soon decreased
in magnitude and ranged between +3nT and -4nT for the rest of
the UT day with no prolonged southward excursions. Very Low levels
of solar flare activity are expected for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 32222122
Cocos Island 6 31112222
Darwin 5 22122112
Townsville 7 32222112
Learmonth 8 32222222
Alice Springs 6 22222112
Culgoora 6 22222112
Gingin 8 31212223
Canberra 6 22222122
Launceston 10 32323123
Hobart 6 22222122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Mar :
Macquarie Island 9 32233211
Casey 17 34532223
Mawson 32 64323246
Davis 21 43434252
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15 3433 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Mar 13 Unsettled to Active
19 Mar 11 Unsettled
20 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 17 March and
is current for 17-18 Mar. Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions
observed across the Australian region over the last 24 hours.
Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active periods expected for
18Mar due to elevated solar wind speeds under the influence of
a northern hemisphere located negative polarity recurrent coronal
hole. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 19Mar-20Mar
due to the expected weakening influence of the coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Variable MUFs observed over the last 24 hours with brief
enhancements for low-mid latitudes as well as mildly depressed
MUFs and occasional periods of disturbed ionospheric support
for high latitude regions. Similar variable HF conditions expected
for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Mar -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 3
Apr 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
19 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
20 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 17 March
and is current for 17-18 Mar. Variable HF conditions observed
on 17Mar with brief enhancements during local day for Northern
AUS and Equatorial regions and depressed MUFs for Southern AUS/NZ
regions. MUF's expected to be near predicted monthly values for
all regions with possible mild depressions for Southern AUS/NZ
and Northern AUS regions for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Mar
Speed: 475 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 259000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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