[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 March 18 issued 2330 UT on 09 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 10 10:30:27 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 10 MARCH - 12 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Mar: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 9 March. Currently
there are no sunspots on the solar disc visible from the Earthside.
No earthward directed CMEs were visible in the LASCO images over
the last 24 hours. A weak shock was observed in the solar wind
at 1720UT on 09 March due to the possible arrival of a previously
mentioned weak CME. As per the available solar wind data, the
solar wind speed stayed mostly between 350 and 400 km/s today
(UT day 09 March, 0700 to 1700 UT). Then due to the arrival of
the shock, solar wind speed suddenly rose to ~450 km/s and stayed
at this level until the time of this report. The IMF Bt varied
mostly between 1 nT and 10 nT during the day, whereas the Bz
component varied between -3 nT and +6 nT during this time and
went to a maximum negative value of -8 nT around 2235 UT. The
solar wind may continue to show some strengthening on 10 March
due to the expected effect of a coronal hole and some minor effect
of the CME. Very Low levels of solar flare activity are expected
for the next three UT days, 10-12 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 22122233
Cocos Island 7 22111233
Darwin 7 22112232
Townsville 8 22122233
Learmonth 9 32122233
Alice Springs 7 22222222
Culgoora 6 22112123
Gingin 8 31112133
Canberra 7 22122123
Launceston 8 22222133
Hobart 7 22122123
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Mar :
Macquarie Island 4 22021012
Casey 14 34431123
Mawson 21 44222036
Davis 13 23331025
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0120 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Mar 6 Quiet
12 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were
observed across the Australian region today (UT day 09 March).
The Antarctic region experienced mainly quiet to unsettled levels,
with some active periods. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions
may be expected on 10 March followed by quiet conditions on 11
and 12 March. In the SWS magnetometer data for 09 Mar, a weak
(10nT) impulse was observed at 1809UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values during
the UT day 9 March. There were minor to mild depressions in MUFs
in some low latitude regions during the local day. Minor to mild
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions may be expected
on 10 March due to possible slight rise in geomagnetic activity
on this day. Normal HF conditions may be expected on 11 and 12
March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Mar 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 3
Apr 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Mar 2 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
11 Mar 4 Near predicted monthly values
12 Mar 4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values in the
Southern Australian region during the UT day 9 March. There were
minor to mild depressions in MUFs in the Northern Australian
regions during the local day. Minor to mild MUF depressions and
degradations in HF conditions may be expected in the Australian/NZ
regions on 10 March due to possible slight rise in geomagnetic
activity on this day. Normal HF conditions may be expected on
11 and 12 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Mar
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 21900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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