[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 July 18 issued 2333 UT on 29 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Mon Jul 30 09:33:47 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JULY - 01 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jul:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jul             31 Jul             01 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 29 July. There 
are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk visible 
from the Earthside. There were a few A-class flares from a new 
region that is visible near the East limb. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 and C3 imagery up to 29/1754 UT. 
During the UT day 29 July, the solar wind speed gradually declined, 
from around 370 km/s to 310 km/s. The total IMF Bt mainly varied 
between 4 to 5 nT, then increased to between 6 to 7 nT from 29/1924 
UT. The Bz component of IMF varied between -4 to 2 nT. Very Low 
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 
30 July to 01 August, with a slight chance for C-class flares. 
The solar wind is expected to remain at nominal values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11120011
      Cocos Island         1   01100010
      Darwin               2   11210001
      Townsville           2   11120011
      Learmonth            3   11121011
      Alice Springs        2   11120000
      Culgoora             2   11120010
      Gingin               2   11011011
      Canberra             1   01120000
      Launceston           4   11131011
      Hobart               3   11131000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     2   00131000
      Casey                4   22211011
      Mawson              24   43321165
      Davis               13   33321044

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2201 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jul     5    Quiet
31 Jul     5    Quiet
01 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at mainly Quiet levels across 
the Australian region on UT day 29 July, with an isolated Unsettled 
period at High latitudes. Mainly Quiet levels of global magnetic 
activity, with a chance of isolated Unsettled periods, are expected 
on UT days, 30 July to 01 August, as the solar wind has returned 
to nominal values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
29 Jul     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      7
Jul      -2
Aug      -3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
31 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
01 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the 
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 29 July, with Minor MUF enhancements 
in the Southern Australian Region during the local night. Mostly 
near predicted monthly MUF values are expected in the Aus/NZ 
regions for the next three UT days (30 July to 01 August).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jul
Speed: 369 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:   160000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.