[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 4 09:30:26 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 03 July,
with no solar flares. There is currently no numbered sunspot
regions on the visible solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 04-06
July, solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the UT day, 03 July,
via LASCO C2 imagery up to 03/1636 UT. The solar wind was near
its nominal levels, 300-350 km/s. The IMF Bt during the last
24 hours ranged between 3 nT and 7 nT; the Bz component of IMF
were between -5 nT and 6 nT. The two day outlook (04-05 July)
is for the solar wind speed to remain near its nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 01101200
Darwin 2 01111200
Townsville 3 11111201
Learmonth 3 00111300
Alice Springs 2 01101200
Culgoora 1 01001200
Gingin 1 00000300
Canberra 1 01001200
Launceston 2 00001300
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000200
Casey 3 00011310
Mawson 3 20000310
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 2 0000 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jul 5 Quiet
05 Jul 5 Quiet
06 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 03 July. Expect magnetic
conditions to be mostly at quiet levels for the next three UT
days, 04-06 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three days (4-6 July).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jul -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 7
Jul -2
Aug -3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jul -2 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jul -2 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul -2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 03 July, MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly
values at most AUS/NZ regions. Incidence of sporadic-E were observed
at some Australian region. Similar ionospheric conditions are
expected for the three UT days (04-06 Jul).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 11300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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