[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 January 18 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 31 10:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jan 01 Feb 02 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 30 Jan. A single low
level B-class flare from newly numbered region 2697(S10E48) observed
at 1739UT. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for
the next 3 days with a slight chance of C-class flares. Solar
wind speed remained around 350km/s over the UT day 30 Jan. Bz,
the north-south component of the IMF ranged between +/-5nT over
the UT day. Solar wind parameters are expected to range between
nominal values to slightly enhanced at times over the next 24
hours due to minor coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 12221101
Cocos Island 2 11210000
Darwin 4 22221101
Townsville 5 22221211
Learmonth 4 12221201
Gingin 2 11210101
Canberra 4 12311100
Launceston 6 13321201
Hobart 5 12321201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 02210000
Casey 12 44421111
Mawson 7 24222110
Davis 6 22322120
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jan :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs NA
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0011 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Feb 5 Quiet
02 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed for the Australian region
for 30 Jan with one isolated Unsettled period observed at Higher
latitudes around 0600UT. Mostly Quiet conditions expected for
the next 3 days with possible Unsettled periods over the next
24 hours due to weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions ranging from near predicted monthly values
to slightly depressed MUFs observed over the last 24 hours. Similar
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jan -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -10
Jan 4
Feb 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jan -10 Near predicted monthly values
01 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
02 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Slightly depressed MUFs observed for Northern AUS and
Equatorial regions. Mostly normal ionospheric support for Southern
AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions. Continued sporadic E conditions
for some SWS stations. Similar conditions are expected for the
next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 11.3 p/cc Temp: 26200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Bureau of Meteorology
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