[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 January 18 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 16 10:30:22 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jan             17 Jan             18 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low today (UT day 15 January). 
There is one sunspot region (2696) on the solar disk visible 
from the earth. Solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 
525 to 475 km/s today as the effect of the coronal hole further 
diminished. The north-south component of IMF, Bz, varied mostly 
between +/-4 nT today, whereas the total IMF, Bt, mostly varied 
between 2 and 5 nT during this time. Very low levels of solar 
activity may be expected for the next three days (16 to 18 January).

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: Mostly quiet 
with isolated unsettled periods

Estimated Indices 15 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22221211
      Cocos Island         4   22221110
      Darwin               5   22211211
      Townsville           6   22222212
      Learmonth            5   22221211
      Alice Springs        5   22221211
      Culgoora             6   22221212
      Gingin               5   31211210
      Camden               6   22221212
      Canberra             5   22211212
      Launceston           8   23222222
      Hobart               7   23222211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     7   13311301
      Casey               21   46432221
      Mawson              16   44322333
      Davis               17   54432221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             10   4421 1201     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jan     5    Quiet
17 Jan     5    Quiet
18 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels with 
isolated unsettled periods across the Australian region today 
(UT day 15 January). Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected 
in this region for the next three days (16 to 18 January).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly at normal levels with some 
periods of MUF depressions in some low latitude regions. Periods 
of Sporadic E blanketing were also evident. Mostly normal HF 
conditions may be expected for the next three days (16 to 18 
January) with some possibility of minor MUF depressions as the 
solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels during 
this period, which may result in the weakening of ionising radiation.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Jan    -5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -10
Jan      4
Feb      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jan    -5    Near predicted monthly values
17 Jan    -5    Near predicted monthly values
18 Jan    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions stayed mostly at normal levels in Australian 
region with some periods of MUF depressions in the Northern parts 
of the region. Periods of Sporadic E blanketing were also evident. 
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected in the region for 
the next three days (16 to 18 January) with some possibility 
of minor MUF depressions as the solar activity is expected to 
stay at very low levels during this period, which may result 
in the weakening of ionising radiation.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: 574 km/sec  Density:    6.8 p/cc  Temp:   364000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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