[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 31 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 1 10:30:40 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 31 December,
with no flares. There is currently no numbered solar region on
the visible disk. Very low levels of solar flare activity is
expected for the next three days (1-3 Jan), with a very weak
chance of C-class flares. No earthward directed CMEs were observed
in the available LASCO C2 imagery on UT day 31 Dec. The solar
wind speed for most part of UT day 31 December was near the nominal
level of 375 km/s. However from 31/1900 UT, there is evidence
of possible enhancements in solar wind speeds associated with
a recurrent positive polarity Northern Hemisphere coronal hole
which has now reached geoeffective location on the solar disk.
During the UT day 31 December, the IMF Bt ranged between 3 nT
and 10 nT. It enhanced post 31/1700 UT caused by the corotation
interaction region (CIR) associated with a coronal hole. The
Bz component of IMF was mostly weak, however post 31/1900 UT
has been significantly southward. The two day outlook (1-2 Jan)
is for the solar wind speed to continue to enhance in response
to high speed streams associated with the coronal hole. During
the previous rotation this coronal hole produced winds in excess
of 500 km/s for three consecutive days at earth. Similar effects
are expected in this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 11111122
Cocos Island 2 11100111
Darwin 3 11110122
Townsville 4 11111222
Learmonth 3 10011222
Alice Springs 2 00001122
Gingin 3 10011222
Camden 4 11111122
Canberra 1 00000111
Launceston 4 11111222
Hobart 1 10001111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 00001111
Casey 8 23321122
Mawson 6 22111123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1100 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jan 25 Active
02 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
03 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 63 was issued on 31 December
and is current for 1-2 Jan. Magnetic conditions were mostly at
quiet levels across the Australian region during the UT day,
31 December. Today, 1 Jan magnetic conditions could reach active
to minor storm levels and mostly to unsettled to active levels
on 2 Jan. The forecasted active conditions are due to a recurrent
positive polarity Northern Hemisphere coronal hole which has
reached geoeffective location on the solar disk. The aurora may
be visible on the local night of 1 Jan from Tasmania and Southern
Parts of Victoria Australia.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal Fair Fair-poor
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depression could occur in the
Southern mid and high latitude regions in response to the forecasted
active magnetic conditions associated with the coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Dec 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jan -20 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
03 Jan -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions to near monthly predicted MUFs
were observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day 31 December. Incidence
of Sporadic E blanketing were still evident over some Australian
ionosonde sites. The two day outlook (1 - 2 Jan) is for minor
to moderate MUF depression in response to the forecasted active
magnetic conditions associated with the coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 135000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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