[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 February 18 issued 2348 UT on 27 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Wed Feb 28 10:48:41 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Feb             01 Mar             02 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 27 February. No 
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the LASCO C2 coronagraph 
imagery for 27 February up to 27/1948 UT. During the last 24 
hours, the solar wind speed increased from 410 km/s to 560 km/s 
around 27/1530 UT and then began decreasing, currently around 
506 km/s. The IMF Bt had two peaks: 10 nT at 27/0122 UT and 11 
nT at 27/1032 UT. The Bz component had an extended period of 
negative values from 26/1834 to 27/0404 UT, reaching a minimum 
of -8.98 at 27/0314 UT. It had another minimum of -9.56 nT at 
27/1100UT. Very Low levels of solar flare activity are expected 
for the next three UT days, 28 February to 02 March. Solar winds 
are expected to decrease over the next two days, 28 February 
and 01 March, then become enhanced again on 02 March due the 
influence of a positive polarity coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 27 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   33225211
      Cocos Island         8   33123210
      Darwin              10   33224211
      Townsville          12   34224212
      Learmonth           16   34225312
      Alice Springs       13   33225211
      Culgoora            13   33225211
      Gingin              13   33125222
      Canberra             8   23124111
      Launceston          16   34235222
      Hobart              12   33125211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    30   25237321
      Casey               16   44433212
      Mawson              42   76424433
      Davis               22   55334321

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   1121 1213     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Mar     4    Quiet
02 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet to Active across 
the Australian region, with an isolated period of Active to Minor 
Storm levels, during the UT day 27 February. The Antarctic region 
experienced Quiet to Active levels with isolated periods of Minor 
Storm to Severe Storm levels. Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions, 
with a possibility of isolated Active periods in the higher latitudes 
for 28 February. Conditions should gradually return to mostly 
Quiet levels by 1 March, then increase to Unsettled to Active 
levels on 2 March due to the influence of a positive polarity 
coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Feb     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -6
Feb      4
Mar      3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Feb   -10    Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
01 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values
02 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values across 
the Australian region, with some minor depressions during the 
local day in the Northern Australian regions, during the UT day 
27 February. There were also isolated cases of Sporadic E blanketing 
over Australian ionosonde sites. For 28 February, MUFs are expected 
to have moderate depressions to near monthly predicted levels 
due to the geomagnetic activity on 27 February. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to return to more normal levels on 01 March.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb
Speed: 412 km/sec  Density:    6.9 p/cc  Temp:   177000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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