[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 16 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 17 10:30:30 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 16 Feb. Active
Region 2699 produced only one B-class flare. Very low levels
of solar flare activity are expected for the next three UT days,
17-19 Feb, with a chance for C-class flares for 17 Feb. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The
solar wind speeds were light to moderate, 330-420 km/s. The IMF
Bt varied in the range 3-14 nT and its Bz component was between
-9 nT and +13 nT, without prolonged periods with negative Bz.
During the next UT day, 17 Feb, the solar wind speed is expected
to increase to moderate and strong levels due to arrival of high
speed streams from the recurrent coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 16 Feb : A K
Australian Region 10 33421122
Darwin 4 32200001
Townsville 11 33431122
Learmonth 11 43321222
Alice Springs 11 334211--
Culgoora 9 23421122
Canberra 7 23321111
Launceston 11 33422222
Hobart 9 23421121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Feb :
Mawson 12 334221--
Davis 16 33532232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 1011 2442
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
18 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet to active levels
across the Australian and Antarctic regions during the UT day,
16 Feb. In the SWS magnetometer data for 16 Feb, a weak (10 nT)
impulse was observed at 0758 UT. Unsettle to active conditions
are expected for 17 Feb due to recurrent coronal hole effect.
Then the geomagnetic activity is expected to decrease to quiet
and unsettled levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: For 17 Feb, MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values. Minor to moderate depressions can occur in the
Southern hemisphere as a consequence of the recent increase in
geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Feb 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -6
Feb 4
Mar 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Feb 4 Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb 4 Near predicted monthly values
19 Feb 4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during
the UT day 16 Feb over the Australian region. Minor depressions
were also observed in the Northern Australian region during local
day. There were a few cases of Sporadic E blanketing over the
Australian ionosonde sites. For 17-19 Feb MUFs are expected to
be mostly near predicted monthly values. Minor to moderate depressions
can occur in the Southern hemisphere as a consequence of the
recent increase in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 354 km/sec Density: 11.7 p/cc Temp: 33400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list