[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 14 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 15 10:30:26 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 74/11 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 14 Feb. AR 2699
produced only one B-class flare. Very low levels of solar flare
activity are expected for the next three UT days, 15-17 Feb,
with a chance for C-class flares. The CME associated with the
C1.5 flare peaked at 12/0135 UT is expected to arrive at the
end of the UT day 14 Feb or later, on 15 Feb. No other Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available imagery. The solar wind speed
on UT day 14 Feb was steady near its background level, varying
in the range 300-320 km/s. During the UT day 14 Feb, the IMF
Bt was also steady, 2-3 nT, and its Bz component was between
-3 nT and +3 nT. By the end of 14 Feb the speed may increase
to moderate and strong levels due to arrival of the CME and high
speed streams from the recurrent coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Feb : A K
Australian Region 1 10100001
Darwin 2 21100012
Townsville 2 11110011
Learmonth 2 21100002
Alice Springs 1 20100001
Culgoora 1 10100011
Gingin 2 20100012
Canberra 0 10100000
Launceston 0 10100000
Hobart 0 10100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 32320021
Mawson 8 31101134
Davis 6 21213121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1000 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Feb 28 Active
16 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
17 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 13 February
and is current for 14-15 Feb. Magnetic conditions were at quiet
levels across the Australian region during the UT day, 14 February.
Mostly quiet and at times unsettled conditions were experienced
in the Antarctic region. Active to minor storm conditions are
expected for 15 February upon arrival of the CME associated with
the C1.5 flare peaked at 12/0135 UT and corotating interaction
region associated with the recurrent coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Fair Fair Fair-poor
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are expected during 15 Feb due
to predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Feb 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -6
Feb 4
Mar 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values
16 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during
the UT day 14 Feb over the Australian region. Minor depressions
were also observed in the Northern Australian region during local
day. There were very few incidence of Sporadic E blanketing over
the Australian Ionosonde sites. Enhanced MUFs are expected on
15 Feb due to predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 315 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 24900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list