[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 January 18 issued 2330 UT on 31 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 1 10:30:23 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels on UT day 31 Jan,
with no flares. There is currently one numbered solar region
on the visible disk. Very Low levels of solar flare activity
are expected for the next three days (1-3 Feb), with a very weak
chance of C-class flares. The solar wind speed for the first
part of UT day, 31 Jan was near the nominal level of ~350 km/s.
However from 31/0400 UT, there is evidence of slight enhancements
in solar wind speeds associated with a recurrent coronal hole.
The solar wind speed reached 450 km/s at the time of this report.
The IMF Bt also enhanced and reached 8 nT. The Bz component of
IMF varied in the range of +/-5 nT, mostly southward post 31/0400
UT. Solar wind parameters may remain slightly enhanced over the
next 24 hours due to minor coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 10223122
Cocos Island 2 10111111
Darwin 5 11213112
Townsville 6 11223122
Learmonth 6 00223222
Gingin 5 00123222
Canberra 5 10223112
Launceston 7 11223222
Hobart 4 00123112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jan :
Macquarie Island 11 00245201
Casey 64 95332223
Mawson 18 00133355
Davis 13 01333442
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs NA
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0221 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Feb 5 Quiet
03 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet to Unsettled levels
across the Australian region during the UT day, 31 Jan. The Unsettled
conditions are due to slightly elevated solar winds emanating
from a weak recurrent coronal hole. Mostly Quiet conditions expected
for the next 3 days with possible Unsettled periods over the
next 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions ranging from near predicted monthly values
to moderately depressed MUFs observed over the last 24 hours.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jan -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -10
Jan 4
Feb 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
02 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
03 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUFs depressions observed for Northern
AUS and Equatorial regions. Mostly normal ionospheric support
for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions. Continued sporadic
E conditions for some SWS stations. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 338 km/sec Density: 9.3 p/cc Temp: 19100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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