[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 December 18 issued 2330 UT on 28 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 29 10:30:18 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Dec 30 Dec 31 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 28 December.
There are currently no sunspot regions on the visible solar disc.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next three
UT days, 29-31 December. No Earth directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 28 December,
the solar wind speed was strong, currently around 600 km/s. This
is due to high-speed solar wind streams associated with a positive
polarity recurrent coronal hole. During the last 24 hours, the
total IMF (Bt) varied between 5 nT and 13 nT and the north-south
component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between -12 and +10 nT. The
solar wind speed is expected to stay at these enhanced levels
during the next 24 hours as the effects of the coronal hole persist.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 28 Dec : A K
Australian Region 14 32433332
Cocos Island 10 22333231
Darwin 12 32333331
Townsville 14 32433332
Learmonth 14 32433332
Alice Springs 13 32333332
Culgoora 11 22433222
Canberra 12 32433222
Launceston 13 32433322
Hobart 13 32433322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Dec :
Macquarie Island 20 22545321
Mawson 40 55444365
Davis 41 44644365
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 24
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 3 1100 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Dec 15 Quiet to Active
30 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 28 December. Storm levels
were observed in Antarctica. This was in response to high-speed
solar wind streams associated with a recurrent coronal hole.
During the next three UT days, 29-31 December, geomagnetic activity
is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels. There is a chance
for isolated Active periods to occur today, 29 December because
the solar wind speed is still high.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
31 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are possible today,29
December as a consequence of the continued very low levels of
ionising radiation from the Sun and recent increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Dec -28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -32
Dec -8
Jan -9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Dec -40 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
30 Dec -40 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
31 Dec -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 26 December
and is current for 27-29 Dec. On 28 December, MUFs ranged from
Minor depressions to near predicted monthly values, with some
severe MUF depressions during the local night in the Niue Island
and Northern Australian regions. Strong Sporadic E layers were
seen across the Australian region and in Antarctica. Similar
levels of ionospheric support expected for the next 3 days due
to continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun
and current increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 329 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 19200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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