[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 December 18 issued 2334 UT on 14 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 15 10:34:57 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 14 December.
There is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible
solar disc. Solar activity is expected to stay Very Low for the
next three UT days, 15-17 December. No Earth directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 14 December,
the solar wind speed varied between 340 km/s and 400 km/s, currently
around 350 km/s. During the last 24 hours, the total IMF (Bt)
fluctuated between 2 to 6 nT and the north-south component of
IMF (Bz) fluctuated between +/-4 nT. The solar winds may become
enhanced late on UT day 15 December or on UT day 16 due to the
effects of a recurrent negative polarity southern hemisphere
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 21110101
Cocos Island 1 11000100
Darwin 2 20100101
Townsville 2 21100101
Learmonth 2 21010101
Alice Springs 1 11000101
Culgoora 2 21100101
Gingin 2 21010101
Canberra 2 21110101
Launceston 3 22110111
Hobart 2 21110001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 21000000
Casey 12 44321122
Mawson 9 33221123
Davis 10 33332112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0100 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Dec 8 Quiet, with possible Unsettled to Active levels
late in the day
16 Dec 10 Unsettled to Active
17 Dec 8 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 14 December. Mainly Quiet to Unsettled levels
were observed in Antarctica, with an isolated Active period.
During the next UT day, 15 December, the global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mainly Quiet. Geomagnetic activity may increase
to Unsettled to Active levels late on UT day 15 December or on
UT day 16 December if the solar wind becomes enhanced due to
the influence of a recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 14 December, there were significant MUF depressions
over the Southern Hemisphere as compared to the monthly predicted
levels due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun. Similar depressions are possible on UT day 15 December as
the solar effects persist.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Dec -50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -32
Dec -8
Jan -9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Dec -40 Depressed 15 to 35%/near predicted monthly values
16 Dec -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
17 Dec -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 13 December
and is current for 14-15 Dec. On UT day 14 December, there were
minor to moderate MUF depressions across the Australian region
as compared to the monthly predicted levels, with some severe
MUF depressions during the local night in the Niue Island, Northern
Australian, and Central Australian regions. Sporadic E layers
were seen across the Australian region and in Antarctica. Similar
conditions are expected for UT day, 15 December, as a consequence
of the continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun. Depressions may lessen on UT day, 16 December, in response
to possible geomagnetic activity due to an approaching coronal
hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed: 400 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 34000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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