[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 December 18 issued 2338 UT on 12 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 13 10:38:31 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 12 December.
There is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible
solar disc. Solar activity is expected to stay Very Low for the
next three UT days, 13-15 December. An erupting prominence on
the SE limb was observed in SOHO LASCO coronagraph imagery and
SDO imagery, starting around 12/0400 UT, but it is unlikely to
impact Earth. On UT day 12 December, the solar wind speed gradually
decreased from 500 km/s to currently around 420 km/s. During
the last 24 hours, the total IMF (Bt) fluctuated between 3 to
4 nT and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between
+/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to decrease
as the effects of a large recurrent coronal hole wane, reaching
nominal values on UT day 13 December. Solar winds may become
enhanced late on UT day 15 December due to the effects of a recurrent
negative polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Cocos Island 1 11010010
Darwin 2 11111011
Townsville 3 11111121
Learmonth 4 21121021
Alice Springs 2 11111011
Culgoora 3 12111011
Gingin 3 21111021
Canberra 2 21110011
Launceston 4 22111121
Hobart 2 11111011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 11010000
Casey 14 44431122
Mawson 18 53222244
Davis 17 33333244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1133 0221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Dec 5 Quiet
14 Dec 5 Quiet
15 Dec 8 Quiet, with possible Unsettled to Active levels
late in the day
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 12 December. Mainly Quiet to Active levels were
observed in Antarctica, with an isolated Minor storm period.
During the next two UT days, 13-14 December, the global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mainly Quiet. Geomagnetic activity
may increase to Unsettled to Active levels late on UT day 15
December if the solar wind becomes enhanced.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 12 December, there were significant MUF depressions
over the Southern Hemisphere as compared to the monthly predicted
levels due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun. Similar depressions are possible on UT day 13 December as
the solar effects persist.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Dec -41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -32
Dec -8
Jan -9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Dec -40 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
14 Dec -40 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
15 Dec -40 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 11 December
and is current for 12-13 Dec. On UT day 12 December, there were
minor to moderate MUF depressions across the Australian region
as compared to the monthly predicted levels, with some severe
MUF depressions during the local night in the Northern and Central
Australian regions. Sporadic E layers were seen across the Australian
region and in Antarctica. Similar conditions are expected for
UT days, 13-15 December, as a consequence of the continued very
low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 538 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 267000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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