[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 August 18 issued 2352 UT on 25 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 26 09:52:50 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 25Aug. There are currently
two regions on the visible disk, region 2719 (S08W36) and region
2720 (N08W37) which has shown some growth over the last 24 hours
and produced the largest flare of the day, a B4.1 event at 1048UT.
There were no earth directed CME's observed in available imagery.
The solar wind speed (Vsw) was aprox 330km/s at 00UT and steadily
increased to range between 390km/s an 460km/s over the UT day.
Bz which is the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) was predominantly northward for the first half of
the UT day ranging between -4nT and +8nT. From 12UT onwards there
was a notable steady increase in Btotal while Bz swung south
and has remained southward and is currently -13nT at the time
of this report. This behaviour of the IMF is most likely attributed
to the weak, slow moving CME from 20Aug. Solar wind speed is
expected to remain at its current levels ambient levels while
there is a chance of continued sustained southward Bz due to
CME effects over the next 24 hours. Solar activity is expected
to remain at Very Low levels for the next 3 days with the slight
chance of a C-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 25 Aug : A K
Australian Region 10 12222234
Darwin 11 22232134
Townsville 13 22333234
Learmonth 20 22333255
Alice Springs 12 12332234
Culgoora 10 12222234
Gingin 13 11222245
Canberra 9 11222234
Launceston 12 12322244
Hobart 9 11222234
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 00100123
Casey 18 34321245
Mawson 24 12222266
Davis 16 12233245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1012 3231
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Aug 20 Active
27 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions observed over the Australian
region for the most of the UT day 25Aug. Active to Minor Storm
periods in the last few hours for high latitude regions and Unsettled
to Active conditions for mid latitudes due to the late arrival
of the slow moving CME from 20Aug. Should continued sustained
southward Bz eventuate, Active conditions are expected at mid
latitudes with possible Minor Storm periods in the early half
of the UT day 26Aug and possible Major Storm periods for high
latitudes. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for 27Aug
and mostly Quiet conditions expected for 28Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
27 Aug Normal Normal-fair Poor
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours with occasional disturbed ionospheric support at some mid
and high latitudes. Possible depressed conditions for mid to
high latitudes for mid latitudes and disturbed ionospheric support
for high latitudes due to geomagnetic activity for 26Aug. Improving
conditions are expected for 27Aug onwards.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Aug 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 6
Aug -3
Sep -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
27 Aug -10 Near predicted monthly values
28 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs near predicted monthly values for all regions over
the last 24 hours. Minor depressions expected for Northern and
Southern AUS/NZ regions and periods of disturbed ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions expected for 26AUg-27Aug due to
increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 26700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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