[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 March 18 issued 2330 UT on 31 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 1 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Apr 02 Apr 03 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 31 March. Active
Region 2703(S10E47) produced three B-class flares. The largest
flare, B7 peaked at 0911UT and was accompanied by a CME, which
became visible in STEREO imagery at 1009UT, unlikely to have
a significant earth directed component(pending further analysis).
Very Low to Low levels of solar flare activity are expected for
the next three UT days, 01-03 April. Over the last 24 hours the
solar wind continued decreasing, currently ~400 Km/s. During
the UT day 31 March, the IMF Bt fluctuated between 3 nT and 7
nT and its Bz component was mostly between +/-4 nT. Solar wind
speeds are expected to continue decreasing over the next 24 hours
as coronal influence wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 21111201
Cocos Island 3 20111210
Darwin 3 21111201
Townsville 4 21111211
Learmonth 5 31121201
Alice Springs 3 11111201
Canberra 3 11112201
Launceston 6 22122212
Hobart 4 22112201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 11011100
Casey 9 33321212
Mawson 14 53222223
Davis 10 23432211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1211 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Apr 7 Quiet
02 Apr 5 Quiet
03 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed across the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions expected
for 01-03 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect mostly Normal HF conditions the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Mar 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 3
Apr 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
02 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
03 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in the Australian region
for 31 March. Observed isolated periods of sporadic E throughout
the Australian region. Expect mostly near predicted MUFs over
the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 413 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 153000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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