[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 March 18 issued 2330 UT on 31 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 1 09:30:25 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Apr             02 Apr             03 Apr
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 31 March. Active 
Region 2703(S10E47) produced three B-class flares. The largest 
flare, B7 peaked at 0911UT and was accompanied by a CME, which 
became visible in STEREO imagery at 1009UT, unlikely to have 
a significant earth directed component(pending further analysis). 
Very Low to Low levels of solar flare activity are expected for 
the next three UT days, 01-03 April. Over the last 24 hours the 
solar wind continued decreasing, currently ~400 Km/s. During 
the UT day 31 March, the IMF Bt fluctuated between 3 nT and 7 
nT and its Bz component was mostly between +/-4 nT. Solar wind 
speeds are expected to continue decreasing over the next 24 hours 
as coronal influence wanes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 31 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21111201
      Cocos Island         3   20111210
      Darwin               3   21111201
      Townsville           4   21111211
      Learmonth            5   31121201
      Alice Springs        3   11111201
      Canberra             3   11112201
      Launceston           6   22122212
      Hobart               4   22112201    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     1   11011100
      Casey                9   33321212
      Mawson              14   53222223
      Davis               10   23432211

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               7   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1211 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Apr     7    Quiet
02 Apr     5    Quiet
03 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed across the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions expected 
for 01-03 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Expect mostly Normal HF conditions the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Mar     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      3
Apr      2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values
02 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values
03 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in the Australian region 
for 31 March. Observed isolated periods of sporadic E throughout 
the Australian region. Expect mostly near predicted MUFs over 
the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 413 km/sec  Density:    9.4 p/cc  Temp:   153000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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