[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 September 17 issued 2349 UT on 28 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 29 09:49:42 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Sep 30 Sep 01 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 91/36 91/36 91/36
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 28 September.
Expect Very Low activity for the next three days (29 September
- 1 October), with a chance of C-class flares. No Earth directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 28
September. The solar wind was above 700 km/s on UT day 28 September
due to CH HSS. The wind speed peaked at 752 km/s at 28/0846UT
and is currently varying between 620-720 km/s. The IMF Bt reached
a maximum of 13 nT at 28/0107UT but has dropped and is currently
around 4 nT. The Bz component of IMF has been mainly southward.
It varied between +/- 10 nT early in the UT day, then between
+/- 5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain enhanced
on 29 September but start to decline on 30 September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 28 Sep : A K
Australian Region 24 34544423
Cocos Island 16 33434322
Darwin 24 34544423
Townsville 25 44544423
Learmonth 33 -3555533
Alice Springs 22 33544423
Norfolk Island 19 34543222
Culgoora 21 33544323
Gingin 27 43554433
Camden 25 34554323
Canberra 22 34454323
Launceston 35 45654433
Hobart 26 34554423
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Sep :
Macquarie Island 56 45766533
Casey 27 45544333
Mawson 64 56643576
Davis 59 44654576
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 5 (Quiet)
Gingin 87 (Minor storm)
Canberra 76 (Active)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 43
Planetary 61
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 37 3244 4475
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Sep 25 Unsettled to Active, with possible Minor Storms
30 Sep 20 Unsettled to Active
01 Oct 15 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 48 was issued on 26 September
and is current for 27-29 Sep. Magnetic conditions were mainly
Unsettled to Active across the Australian region on the UT day,
28 September, with a Minor Storm period. Major to Severe Storm
periods were observed in the the Antarctic region. Magnetic activity
is expected to be at Unsettled to Active levels on 29 September,
with possible Minor Storm levels and isolated periods of Major
Storms in the Antarctic region, then Unsettled to Active on 30
September with the chance of Minor Storms, and Quiet to Active
on 1 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
30 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Possible degraded HF communication between 29 September
due to minor geomagnetic storming. MUFs are expected to be mainly
near predicted monthly levels, but with possible minor depressions
at mid to higher latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Sep 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 10
Sep 5
Oct 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Sep 15 Near predicted monthly values
30 Sep 10 Near predicted monthly values
01 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 28 September
and is current for 28-29 Sep. Over the last 24 hours, MUFs were
mainly near predicted monthly values across most of the Australian/NZ
and Antarctic Regions. MUFs were enhanced in the Niue Island
Region across the local day and night, and in the Northern Australian
Region during the local night. Some periods of minor depressions
were observed. Sporadic E was also observed. The two day outlook
(29-30 September) is for the MUFs to be mainly near monthly values,
but depressed compared with the previous day's conditions (27
September). Minor depressions are possible at mid to high latitudes.
This is in response to the recent Active to Minor-Major Storm
geomagnetic conditions associated with the passage of a coronal
hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 526 km/sec Density: 10.2 p/cc Temp: 317000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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