[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 October 17 issued 2330 UT on 30 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 31 10:30:32 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Oct 01 Nov 02 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 74/11 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low level on UT day 30 October,
with no solar flares. There are currently 2 numbered solar regions
on the visible disk, region 2685 (S08W46) and region 2686 (N12W23)
and both remain relatively quiet and stable. Very low solar flare
activity expected for the next three day (31 Oct - 02 Nov). No
earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO
C2 imagery on UT day 30 Oct. The solar wind speed continue to
decline over the UT day from 318 km/s to be ~292 km/s at the
time of this report. The IMF Bt was mostly steady, near 4 nT
during the UT day. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between
-3 nT and +1 nT, but mostly remained weakly negative (southward)
throughout the UT day. From late today, 31 October, the solar
wind speed is expected to increase slightly in response to an
approaching negative polarity low latitude recurrent coronal
hole (southern hemisphere).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Oct : A K
Australian Region 0 00000000
Cocos Island 0 00000000
Darwin 0 00001001
Townsville 1 01011000
Learmonth 0 -0001001
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Norfolk Island 1 10000011
Culgoora 0 00010001
Gingin 0 00000101
Camden 1 10011000
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 11011000
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 6 33320100
Mawson 6 32112122
Davis 5 22222110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0201 2021
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Oct 12 Unsettled
01 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 30 October. Today, 31 October,
the magnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled
and at times could reach up to active levels. The forecasted
disturbed magnetic conditions are in response to the possible
effects of the corotation interaction region associated with
the approaching southern hemisphere coronal hole. Mostly quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected for the subsequent day (1
Nov) as the following high speed streams associated with the
coronal hole are expected to persist for a few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed for 30 October
with only minor MUF depressions in the low latitude regions.
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Oct 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Oct 12 Near predicted monthly values
01 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values
02 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values over the last
24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. The three day outlook (31
October - 2 November) is for the MUFs to be slightly enhanced
to near predicted monthly values. The possible minor enhancement
on 31 October is in response to the forecasted active magnetic
conditions associated with the passage of the coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 26800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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