[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 October 17 issued 2337 UT on 28 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Sun Oct 29 10:37:57 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Oct:  75/13

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Oct             30 Oct             31 Oct
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
There are currently 2 regions on the visible disk, region 2685 
(S08W20) and region 2686 (N13E03) and both remain relatively 
quiet and stable. No earthward directed CMEs were observed in 
the available LASCO C2 imagery. The solar wind speed continued 
to decline from 434km/s at 0053UT to be ~375km/s at the time 
of this report. Bz ranged between +2 and -5nT over the UT day. 
Very Low to Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 days 
with only a slight chance of C-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12221211
      Cocos Island         3   11111210
      Darwin               3   11111211
      Townsville           5   12222111
      Learmonth            6   12222212
      Alice Springs        3   01121211
      Norfolk Island       5   11221221
      Culgoora             4   12221111
      Gingin               5   11221221
      Camden               4   12221111
      Canberra             4   12221111
      Launceston           6   12231212
      Hobart               4   02221211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     4   01331001
      Casey               11   33422222
      Mawson              17   44222244
      Davis               14   23332251

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1112 0011     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Oct     5    Quiet
30 Oct     5    Quiet
31 Oct     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet 
conditions are expected for the next 3 days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
31 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions for 28 October with notable enhancements 
and depressed MUF's for low to mid latitudes. Similar HF conditions 
and near predicted monthly MUF values expected for 29Oct-31Oct.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
28 Oct     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      20
Oct      5
Nov      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Oct     5    Near predicted monthly values
30 Oct     5    Near predicted monthly values
31 Oct     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed over the Australian 
region during the last 24 hours. Notable MUF depressions of ~20% 
during local evening for Southern AUS/NZ regions and enhancements 
during local day for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions. MUFs are 
expected to be near predicted monthly values over the next 3 
days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Oct
Speed: 460 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:   204000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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