[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 October 17 issued 2343 UT on 20 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 21 10:43:25 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER CORRECTION
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 83/24 83/24
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate for the UT day, 20 October.
The visible solar disk is currently spotless. Expect Low to Moderate
levels of solar activity for the next three days (21-23 October)
with increasing chance of C- and M- class flares as returning
active region 2682 rotates on to the visible solar disc. Currently
there is a M1.1 flare in progress. No Earthward directed CMEs
were observed in the available LASCO C2 imagery up to 20/1536UT.
The solar wind decreased from 480 to 360 km/s over the past 24
hours and is currently ~360 km/s. The IMF Btotal ranged between
3-6 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated between +3/-5 nT. Expect
the solar wind to remain near nominal levels for the next three
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 21212011
Cocos Island 3 11111111
Darwin 4 21211111
Townsville 4 21212012
Learmonth 5 22212112
Alice Springs 3 21112011
Culgoora 4 21212011
Gingin 5 21212112
Camden 5 21222012
Canberra 4 21222011
Launceston 6 22223012
Hobart 5 21223001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Oct :
Macquarie Island 11 22444000
Casey 9 33322122
Mawson 15 34322234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 3332 2423
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Oct 6 Quiet
22 Oct 5 Quiet
23 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The magnetic field over Australia was mostly at Quiet
levels during the UT day, 20 October. The Antarctic region was
at Quiet to Unsettled levels with isolated periods of Active
conditions. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the next three
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect near predicted MUFs with minor depressions possible
over the next three days due to very low solar activity levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Oct -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
22 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values
23 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Near predicted MUFs in the Northern and the Southwest
Australian region and 20-25% depressions in the Southeast Australian
region for the UT day, 20 October. Expect near predicted MUFs
for the next three days with a chance of Minor depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Oct
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 9.3 p/cc Temp: 115000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Bureau of Meteorology
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