[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 October 17 issued 2330 UT on 06 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 7 10:30:42 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Oct 08 Oct 09 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 80/20 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 6 October).
Eight B-class flares were observed today, the largest being a
B9.8 from region 2683. The B9.8 flare peaked at 1634 UT. There
are currently two sunspot groups (2682 and 2683) on the earthward
side of the solar disk. They are both stable and having simple
magnetic configurations of alpha and beta. The solar wind speed
varied mostly between 390 and 480 km/s during the UT day today.
The IMF Bt varied mostly between 5 and 8 nT today. IMF Bz showed
variations in the approximate range of +5/-6 nT most of the times
today. Solar wind stream may stay relatively stronger on UT day
7 October due to the influence of a recurrent negative polarity
coronal hole. Very low levels of solar activity may be expected
for the next three days (7 to 9 October) with chance of C-class
activity during this period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 22211211
Cocos Island 3 21110211
Darwin 4 22110211
Townsville 5 22211221
Learmonth 6 32211212
Alice Springs 5 22211211
Norfolk Island 5 22211112
Culgoora 5 22211211
Gingin 6 32211212
Camden 5 22212211
Canberra 5 22212211
Launceston 6 23212211
Hobart 6 23212211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Oct :
Macquarie Island 7 22124210
Casey 13 34422222
Mawson 21 35323325
Davis 11 33323213
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 3100 0113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Oct 6 Quiet
09 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across
the Australian region on UT day 6 October. Mostly quiet geomagnetic
conditions may be expected for the next three days (7 to 9 October)
with the possibility of unsettled periods on 7 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to enhanced
by 30 % during the UT day 6 October. MUFs may be expected to
stay mostly near monthly predicted values from 7 to 9 October
UT days with the possibility of minor to moderate enhancements
on 8 and 9 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Oct 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values
08 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 10
to 20 %
09 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values/ enhanced by 10
to 20 %
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to enhanced
by 30 % across the Australian/NZ regions during the UT day 6
October. MUF enhancements of up to 20% were observed in the Antarctic
Regions on the day. MUFs in the Aus/NZ region may be expected
to stay mostly near monthly predicted values from 7 to 9 October
UT days with the possibility of minor to moderate enhancements
on 8 and 9 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: 398 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 157000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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