[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 October 17 issued 2330 UT on 04 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 5 10:30:24 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 87/30 87/30 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low today (UT day 4 October).
The solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from approximately
400 to 360 km/s during the day today. The IMF Bt varied between
3 and 8 nT today while IMF Bz showed variations in the approximate
range of +/-3 nT during most parts of the day, turning southwards
up to around -6 nT during the last few hours of the day. There
is a good possibility for the solar wind stream to get stronger
on UT day 5 October due to the likely influence of a recurrent
negative polarity coronal hole. There are currently two sunspot
groups on the earthward side of the solar disk. They are both
stable. Very low levels of solar activity may be expected for
the next three days (5 to 7 October) with chance of C-class flares
during this period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11001022
Cocos Island 2 11100020
Darwin 2 11100012
Townsville 2 11001022
Learmonth 2 11100022
Alice Springs 1 11000011
Norfolk Island 2 11100002
Culgoora 2 11001022
Gingin 2 11001022
Camden 2 11001022
Canberra 2 11001012
Launceston 3 12101022
Hobart 2 11001012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 00001011
Casey 7 33310021
Mawson 17 34221145
Davis 8 23331022
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 4 2341 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Oct 10 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible
06 Oct 12 Unsettled, some active periods possible
07 Oct 10 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the
Australian region on the UT day, 4 October. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly at quiet to unsettled levels with some
possibility of isolated active periods on 5 October due to the
expected arrival of enhanced solar winds from a negative polarity
recurrent coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity may stay enhanced
to unsettled and possibly active levels on 6 October due to the
effect of the coronal hole. Gradual decline in geomagnetic activity
to unsettled and then quiet levels may be expected through the
UT day 7 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to enhanced
by 30 % during most parts of UT day 4 October. MUFs may be expected
to stay mostly near monthly predicted values from 5 to 7 October
UT days with the possibility of minor enhancements on 5 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Oct 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 10 to
20%
06 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
07 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to enhanced
by 25 % across the Australian/NZ regions during most parts of
UT day 4 October. MUF enhancements of up to 30% were observed
in the Antarctic Regions on the day. MUFs may be expected to
stay mostly near monthly predicted values from 5 to 7 October
UT days with the possibility of minor enhancements on 5 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 405 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 29400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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