[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 November 17 issued 2342 UT on 24 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 25 10:42:26 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Nov 26 Nov 27 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
The visible disk remains spotless and there were no earthward
directed CMEs observed in the available LASCO imagery. The solar
wind speed gradually decreased from 400 km/s to 330 km/s between
00UT and 11UT. From 11UT onwards solar wind speed has increased
to be ~440km/s at the time of this report. The Bz component of
the IMF mostly ranged between +/-7nT with notable sustained southward
Bz periods in the latter half of the UT day. Chance of increased
solar wind speeds for 25Nov. Very Low solar flare activity is
expected for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 12200033
Cocos Island 4 11110132
Darwin 5 12200132
Townsville 7 22210133
Learmonth 5 11200033
Alice Springs 5 11200033
Norfolk Island 7 22221132
Culgoora 4 12200032
Gingin 4 11100033
Camden 6 22200033
Canberra 4 12200032
Launceston 7 23200033
Hobart 5 12200033
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Nov :
Macquarie Island 4 22210022
Casey 16 34422234
Mawson 26 44321165
Davis 25 23431265
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 7 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 1123 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Nov 12 Unsettled
26 Nov 5 Quiet
27 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions for the Australian region
over the last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active
periods should solar wind speeds increase and notable southward
Bz periods eventuate on 25Nov. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
for 26Nov-27Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions ranging from slight enhancements
to notable depressed MUFs by 25% observed over the last 24 hours.
Similar conditions are expected for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Nov 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
26 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
27 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions ranging from slight enhancements
for Equatorial/Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions and notable
depressed MUFs of 25% for Antarctic regions observed over the
last 24 hours. Similar HF conditions expected for the next three
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 428 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 154000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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