[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 November 17 issued 2342 UT on 24 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 25 10:42:26 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Nov             26 Nov             27 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               73/9               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
The visible disk remains spotless and there were no earthward 
directed CMEs observed in the available LASCO imagery. The solar 
wind speed gradually decreased from 400 km/s to 330 km/s between 
00UT and 11UT. From 11UT onwards solar wind speed has increased 
to be ~440km/s at the time of this report. The Bz component of 
the IMF mostly ranged between +/-7nT with notable sustained southward 
Bz periods in the latter half of the UT day. Chance of increased 
solar wind speeds for 25Nov. Very Low solar flare activity is 
expected for the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12200033
      Cocos Island         4   11110132
      Darwin               5   12200132
      Townsville           7   22210133
      Learmonth            5   11200033
      Alice Springs        5   11200033
      Norfolk Island       7   22221132
      Culgoora             4   12200032
      Gingin               4   11100033
      Camden               6   22200033
      Canberra             4   12200032
      Launceston           7   23200033
      Hobart               5   12200033    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     4   22210022
      Casey               16   34422234
      Mawson              26   44321165
      Davis               25   23431265

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            7   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              10   (Quiet)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   1123 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Nov    12    Unsettled
26 Nov     5    Quiet
27 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions for the Australian region 
over the last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active 
periods should solar wind speeds increase and notable southward 
Bz periods eventuate on 25Nov. Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
for 26Nov-27Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions ranging from slight enhancements 
to notable depressed MUFs by 25% observed over the last 24 hours. 
Similar conditions are expected for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Nov    11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      4
Nov      5
Dec      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Nov    10    Near predicted monthly values
26 Nov    10    Near predicted monthly values
27 Nov    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions ranging from slight enhancements 
for Equatorial/Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions and notable 
depressed MUFs of 25% for Antarctic regions observed over the 
last 24 hours. Similar HF conditions expected for the next three 
days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 428 km/sec  Density:    6.6 p/cc  Temp:   154000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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