[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 14 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 15 10:30:24 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 14 November. There
is currently one numbered solar region, 2687, on the visible
disk. Very low solar flare activity is expected for the next
three UT days, 15-17 November, with a chance of C-class flares.
No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO
imagery on UT day 14 November. The solar wind increased to around
400 km/s at 14/0051 UT then decreased back to around 380 km/s
after a short period. It became enhanced again, starting at 14/1200
UT, reaching a peak of 436 km/s at 14/1525 UT. The solar wind
speed is currently around 400 km/s. The IMF Bt reached a maximum
of around 9 nT at 14/0940 UT, and is currently around 3 nT. The
Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between -8 nT and +7 nT over
the first half of the UT day, then after 14/1320 UT went southward
reaching a minimum of around -7 nT. It is currently fluctuating
between -3 nT and 0 nT. The solar wind stream is expected to
continue to be moderately enhanced on 15 November due to the
influence of a recurrent positive polarity northern hemisphere
coronal hole. The solar wind is expected to start returning to
nominal values on 16 November then become enhanced again due
to the influence of a recurrent negative polarity southern hemisphere
coronal hole either late on 16 November or early on 17 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 22222222
Cocos Island 4 21112220
Darwin 5 21212112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 7 22222222
Alice Springs 7 22222222
Norfolk Island 6 22221222
Culgoora 6 22221222
Gingin 7 22212312
Camden 6 22221222
Canberra 6 22221212
Launceston 8 22321322
Hobart 7 22321212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Nov :
Macquarie Island 11 22332421
Casey 20 45522223
Mawson 35 53333565
Davis 18 53333323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Nov :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2212 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Nov 14 Quiet to Unsettled, with chance of Active periods
16 Nov 12 Quiet to Unsettled, with chance of Active periods
17 Nov 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mainly Quiet, with some
isolated Unsettled conditions, across the Australian region during
the UT day, 14 November. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected
for today, 15 November, with the chance of Active periods. This
is in response to the effects of the high speed solar wind streams
associated with a recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected on 16 November, then
increasing to Unsettled to Active either late on 16 November
or early on 17 November due a recurrent southern hemisphere coronal
hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Nov 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
16 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
17 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region MUFs
were near predicted monthly values or depressed by 15%-20% as
a consequence of the recent increased geomagnetic activity. Sporadic
E was observed throughout the Australian region. Similar HF conditions
are expected for 15 Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+09 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:30%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 405 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 138000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list