[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 May 17 issued 2330 UT on 25 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 26 09:30:21 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 May 27 May 28 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 25 May.
Expect Very Low to Low solar activity for the next three days.
CME observed on 23 May is likely to hit Earth in the second half
of the UT day, 26 May. No CMEs observed using LASCO imagery for
25 May up to 1536UT. The solar wind speed decreased from 440
to near 360 km/s over the last 24 hours. Expect the solar wind
speed to remain at nominal levels until expected arrival of CME,
then expect a step up in solar wind speed. The Interplanetary
Magnetic Field Bz component fluctuated between +/-3nT over the
last 24 hours and B total remained steady around 3-4nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 May : A K
Australian Region 0 00001001
Cocos Island 0 00-00000
Darwin 1 10101001
Townsville 2 11111001
Alice Springs 0 00001001
Culgoora 1 00001101
Gingin 1 10101000
Camden 1 01001101
Canberra 0 00001000
Launceston 1 00001101
Hobart 1 00001101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 May :
Macquarie Island 0 01001000
Casey 3 12212100
Mawson 3 11010013
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2211 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 May 25 Unsettled to Active
27 May 20 Unsettled to Active
28 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 23 May and
is current for 26-27 May. Geomagnetic activity was at mostly
Quiet levels for the UT day, 25 May. Expect geomagnetic activity
to remain at Quiet levels until expected arrival of CME in the
second half of the UT day, when activity is expected to increase
to Unsettled to Active levels with isolated periods of Minor
Storming.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Fair Fair Fair-poor
27 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
28 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and MUFs expected today.
Minor to Moderate depressions with degraded HF communication
at higher latitudes possible late in the UT day due to likely
arrival of CME.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 May 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 14
May 12
Jun 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 May 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
27 May 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
28 May 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 29 was issued
on 24 May and is current for 26-27 May. Mostly near predicted
monthly MUFs with Minor depressions in the Northern Australian
region during local day hours observed for the UT day, 25 May.
Expect near predicted monthly MUFs today in the Australian region
with a possibility of Minor to Moderated depressions late in
the UT day depending on the timing of the expected arrival of
the coronal mass ejection that is likely to hit the Earth.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May
Speed: 479 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 294000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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