[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 May 17 issued 0002 UT on 20 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 20 10:02:10 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 May 21 May 22 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
The effect of the negative polarity coronal hole seems to have
started. The solar wind speed stayed between ~420 km/s and ~470
km/s by 18 UT and then showed a relatively rapid rise to ~630
km/s by 22 UT and it is staying around 630 km/s since then. The
north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated mostly between +6/-5nT
during this day. Solar wind stream is expected to stay strong
for the next two to three days due to the effect of this coronal
hole. Very low levels of solar activity with some possibility
of isolated C-class event may be expected for the next three
days (20 to 22 May).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 19 May : A K
Australian Region 11 13313332
Cocos Island 10 13312332
Darwin 9 13302332
Townsville 10 23313232
Alice Springs 9 13302332
Culgoora 9 13302332
Gingin 12 12203443
Camden 10 12313332
Canberra 6 02202331
Launceston 14 14313432
Hobart 10 12213432
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 May :
Macquarie Island 15 01214542
Casey 10 --212333
Mawson 39 24423575
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 13 4442 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 May 35 Unsettled to minor storm, isolated major storm
periods possible
21 May 30 Active to minor Storm
22 May 20 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 19 May and
is current for 19-21 May. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels of
geomagnetic activity were observed on 19 May with isolated active
periods. A negative polarity recurrent coronal hole seems to
have taken a geoeffective position now. Geomagnetic activity
may rise from unsettled to active and then minor storm levels
on 20 May with some possibility of isolated major storm periods
on this day. Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay enhanced
to active to minor storm levels on 21 May and then gradually
decrease to active and then to unsettled levels through 22 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
21 May Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
22 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions as well as enhancements
were observed today (UT day 19 May). Minor to moderate MUF depressions
and degradation in HF conditions may be expected on 20 and 21
May due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity during this
period. Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradation in HF conditions
may be expected on 22 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 May 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 14
May 12
Jun 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 May 0 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
21 May 0 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
22 May 5 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 28 was issued
on 19 May and is current for 19-21 May. Minor to mild MUF depressions
as well as enhancements were observed in the Aus regions today
(UT day 19 May). Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradation in
HF conditions may be expected in the Aus/NZ regions on 20 and
21 May due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity during
this period. Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradation in
HF conditions may be expected in the Aus/NZ regions on 22 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 7.0 p/cc Temp: 40800 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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