[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 May 17 issued 2336 UT on 15 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 16 09:36:50 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 May 17 May 18 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
no significant flare activity. The faint partial halo CME observed
on 13 May may have an earthward directed component. The solar
wind speed increased gradually from ~380km/s to ~600km/s during
the UT day today (15 May). It shows the arrival of a high speed
solar wind stream from a recurrent positive polarity coronal
hole. The IMF north-south component (Bz) fluctuated mostly between
+/-12nT during this day. Solar wind speed is expected to stay
enhanced over the next 3 days due to the effect of the coronal
hole and due to a possible effect of the CME observed on 13 May.
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
days (16 to 18 May).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 15 May : A K
Australian Region 8 02241222
Cocos Island 10 12251122
Darwin 8 12241122
Townsville 9 12341222
Alice Springs 9 02341222
Culgoora 8 02241222
Gingin 10 02342223
Camden 8 12241222
Canberra 4 01230112
Launceston 10 02342223
Hobart 6 01231123
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 May :
Macquarie Island 11 00353112
Casey 9 02241133
Mawson 34 13343375
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 9 2113 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 May 22 Unsettled to active, minor storm periods possible
17 May 30 Active to minor storm, isolated major storm periods
possible
18 May 22 Unsettled to active, minor storm periods possible
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 15 May and
is current for 15-17 May. Geomagnetic conditions went up from
Quiet levels to Active levels on 15 May due to the arrival of
a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole. Unsettled
to Minor levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected on 16
and 18 May. Active to minor storm conditions with some possibility
of isolated major storm periods may by possible on 17 May due
a possible geoeffective component of a CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal-fair Normal-poor Fair-poor
17 May Normal-fair Fair-poor Poor
18 May Normal-fair Fair-poor Poor
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed today (15
May). Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF
conditions may be expected from 16 to 18 May due to expected
continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 May 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 14
May 12
Jun 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 May -10 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
17 May -15 Depressed 20 to 40%/near predicted monthly values
18 May -10 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 26 was issued
on 15 May and is current for 15-17 May. Minor to mild MUF depressions
were observed in Aus/NZ regions today (15 May). Minor to moderate
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions may be expected
in this region from 16 to 18 May due to expected continued rise
in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 317 km/sec Density: 17.8 p/cc Temp: 24100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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